Opinion | High Command’s High Stakes: Will Congress In Kerala Be A Victim In Victory?

The Congress in Kerala is currently scripting what could be an early undoing of a triumphant election victory. The grubby tussle for the CM’s chair is the talk of the town among voters who gave a never-before-seen mandate to the not-so-grand-now old party.
The celebratory air in the state is thick with the scent of a looming political heist.

No one can deny that it was the single-minded effort of V. D. Satheesan that led to Congress winning a record number of seats. Demonstrations, and even a self-immolation attempt by a lay Congressman, highlight the popularity of Satheesan.

But Satheesan may emerge as the ultimate loser in the war he has won. Media headlines repeatedly hint that “most MLAs” are backing K.C. Venugopal for the top post. The spotlight

is on the Lok Sabha MP from Alappuzha, who is seen as one of Rahul Gandhi’s closest confidants.

Gatekeeper of The Gandhis

KC is the right hand of Rahul. He is the man through whose eyes the Gandhis see the political landscape of India. He is the man who frames choices before them. He is the one who controls access, decides candidatures and charts strategies for all states.

The case of Kerala’s next leader is not a Kerala question anymore. It’s a question of what the Gandhis hear. Ironically, the CM race in Kerala has exposed what many in the party have long been uncomfortable with. KC is the hand behind the Iron Throne.

His leverage was evident even in candidate selection before the elections in Kerala. KC had a predominant say in naming candidates, despite V.D. Satheesan being the general in the field. Many of the 46 Congress MLAs who have reportedly ‘backed’ KC for the post of CM were his picks. For them, KC had arranged crucial election funding to counter the Left’s muscle.

An image of AICC observer Mukul Wasnik holding a list with MLA names, with “KC” marked against them, is now viral. Privately, many MLAs may have their sympathies with Satheesan. But in front of the AICC observers sent to “seek their opinion”, the MLAs can only back KC for the top post.

But what many fail to know is that both Wasnik and Ajay Maken are known to be close confidants of Venugopal. He will get to know who backed him or opposed him. The ‘consultation’ process has been less about the MLAs’ free choice and more about documenting loyalties.

In a party with no power at the Centre, keeping KC in good humour is key to survival for leaders with aspirations — for future tickets, for Delhi/Gandhi access, and for funding.

A Nelson From Nettoor?

The UDF in Kerala owes its victory to two tall men. Number one is outgoing Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and his medieval durbar of sycophants. The second is V.D. Satheesan.

Unlike K.C. Venugopal, Satheesan is a man who has always drawn the short straw in the organisational leg-pulling tournament that is Congress in Kerala. In the past, he has missed many victories, whether it be the post of KSU President, Youth Congress chief or a ministerial berth in the Oommen Chandy cabinet.

But once the Gandhis placed their faith in him to replace Ramesh Chennithala as Opposition Leader in 2021, the no-nonsense lawyer became single-minded in orchestrating a campaign inside and outside the Assembly, hammering Vijayan’s autocracy.

Satheesan is a Congressman not cut from the traditional cloth. He showed his fearlessness in taking on the feared CM in the House, and his mettle in countering the government with well-researched arguments. A rarity among the usual khadi-clad, vision-starved Congressmen.

That he is equally not favoured by the powerful Nair and Ezhava community heads and some Church leaders is a badge Satheesan must be wearing proudly. He has earned the UDF a victory without resorting to the old Congress mush of community appeasement and bargaining.

Even then, he has the confidence of all key allies, as diverse in temperament as the Muslim League, the Kerala Congress and the Communist Marxist Party (John). The League has even hinted at its preference for him. His first press conference after the UDF victory saw Satheesan emphasise a victory for ‘Team UDF’.

But the ongoing street theatre in Kerala may end up hurting V.D. Satheesan more than the ‘support’ KC can claim from MLAs. The Congress High Command has always had an aversion to leaders who acquire mass support outside its own patronage.

No one really knows how closely Delhi is watching and understanding the voters’ mood in Kerala. The torchlight processions, flex-board wars and social media campaigns may be construed as pressure politics. Since the party has left the final decision to the Congress President, any impression of orchestrated coercion will only make Delhi defensive.

Satheesan is being undone by his own fans.

Folly In Ignoring The Mandate

No one can deny that Satheesan was the face of the Congress victory. If voters believed they were voting for Satheesan, replacing him with a Delhi parachutist would be the biggest mistake Congress could make in Kerala.

It would expose K.C. Venugopal to charges of rank opportunism. It was the same High Command that he is part of that prevented MPs like K. Sudhakaran and Adoor Prakash from contesting the Assembly elections. This undercut their chances. The same principle should apply to him too.

If KC is still chosen, Congress will have to fight two by-elections. He will have to vacate a precious Lok Sabha seat from Alappuzha — the same seat he bargained hard for in 2024 and for which he even gave up a Rajya Sabha seat in Rajasthan that eventually went to the BJP. A potential by-election in Alappuzha is not a guaranteed Congress win, since the district is a stronghold of the Left, with strong BJP pockets.

An unpopular Venugopal will have to win an Assembly by-election within six months. Imagine what would happen if a parachuted Chief Minister fails at the hustings? The Irikkur Assembly seat (which many are speculating may be his choice) is a safe bet for a Syrian Christian, not a Nair.

Three Choices For Congress To Bungle

One might fault the Congress for many things, but political wisdom is not one of them. It has a history of digging multiple graves in various states on its restful road to ignominy.

Take the example of Rajasthan, where Sachin Pilot was central to the 2018 victory, but the High Command favoured Ashok Gehlot, only to deliver the state to the BJP. In Madhya Pradesh, favouring Kamal Nath made Jyotiraditya Scindia the BJP’s poster boy. Its biggest mistake was in Assam, where it alienated a loyal foot soldier like Himanta Biswa Sarma so much that he became its nemesis in the Northeast. If history is repeated in Kerala, the political optics would be terrible.

Wisdom suggests the Congress has three choices before it through which it can extricate itself from that mistake.

The Wisest Path: Bite the bullet and confirm V.D. Satheesan as CM. He has delivered a mandate, has the support of allies, and the backbone to keep community leaders of all colours in check. It will instil confidence in the cadre for the 2029 Lok Sabha polls. It will send a big message on meritocracy within the party.

The Easy Path: Name Ramesh Chennithala as CM, with Satheesan as No. 2. Satheesan may not be happy, but will make peace with it. Chennithala is far more senior and experienced in both party and government. He is also a sitting MLA who does not need to face a by-election and is well liked by community leaders and allies.

The Radical Path: Ditch the fighting Nairs and choose IUML’s P.K. Kunhalikutty as consensus CM for a short term. There is no shame in giving the top job to a leader more senior than even Chennithala. There is precedent for Congress backing both C.H. Mohammed Koya (IUML) and C. Achutha Menon (CPI) as CMs despite them being leaders of smaller parties. Congress may be branded a pro-Muslim party and it would set the stage for a straight UDF vs BJP fight in 2029, with the Left marginalised. But then, this would happen anyway considering the BJP’s rising stature in the state.

The least wise thing right now for the High Command to do would be to parachute K.C. Venugopal as the Gandhis’ CM pick. If the High Command ignores its ‘KC Problem’, it could lose Kerala soon after winning it.

Unfortunately, no one can ever accuse the Congress of being wise.