'Wake-Up Call': Extreme Heat May Double By 2050, India To Be Among Worst-Hit, Oxford Study Warns

A new study by researchers at the University of Oxford warns that accelerating global warming could expose billions of people to dangerously high temperatures within the next few decades.

The analysis estimates that if average global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a scenario scientists now consider increasingly likely, about 3.79 billion people, nearly half the world’s population, could be living under extreme heat conditions by 2050.

The researchers caution that severe impacts will emerge well before that point. As global temperatures approach the 1.5-degrees Celsius threshold set by the Paris Agreement, heat exposure is expected to increase sharply. In 2010, extreme heat affected around 23% of the global population;

the study, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, suggests this figure could climb to 41% in the near future.

Some regions are projected to see particularly rapid increases in heat exposure, including the Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos, and Brazil. Meanwhile, the highest number of people affected will likely be in densely populated countries such as India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, and the Philippines.

Cold Countries Won’t Be Immune

The study also finds that countries with historically cooler climates will not be immune. Compared with 2006–2016 levels, a 2-degrees Celsius rise could double the number of hot days in Austria and Canada. The UK, Sweden, and Finland may see increases of around 150%, while Norway and Ireland could experience rises of 200% or more.

Lead author Dr Jesus Lizana, Associate Professor in Engineering Science, noted that most shifts in heating and cooling demand will occur before the 1.5°C limit is reached, meaning adaptation efforts must begin sooner than expected. The researchers warn that buildings and infrastructure in cooler regions are poorly designed for prolonged heat, potentially forcing millions of homes to adopt air-conditioning within just a few years.

Demand For Cooling May Rise

“Our study shows most of the changes in cooling and heating demand occur before reaching the 1.5ºC threshold, which will require significant adaptation measures to be implemented early on. For example, many homes may need air conditioning to be installed in the next five years, but temperatures will continue to rise long after that if we hit 2.0 of global warming,” Lizana said.

“To achieve the global goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, we must decarbonise the building sector while developing more effective and resilient adaptation strategies,” she added.

Oxford experts added that surpassing 1.5°C of warming could have far-reaching consequences for health, education, agriculture, and migration, while sharply increasing global demand for cooling and energy.

Dr Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and leader of the Oxford Martin Future of Cooling Programme, said that the study should be a “wake-up call” for everyone.

“Our findings should be a wake-up call. Overshooting 1.5°C of warming will have an unprecedented impact on everything from education and health to migration and farming. Net zero sustainable development remains the only established path to reversing this trend for ever hotter days. It is imperative politicians regain the initiative towards it,” Khosla added.