Bihar Exit Polls Predicted Which Way The Wind Was Blowing, But Couldn't Gauge NDA Landslide

The latest trends in the Bihar election results show the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at 190 seats, making it clear that most exit polls were directionally correct in forecasting an NDA win in the assembly elections but many underestimated just how sweeping that victory would be.

Of the 243 seats, News18 Mega Exit Poll predicted that the alliance will bag 140-150 seats, while Dainik Bhaskar had predicted 145-160 seats for the alliance and People’s Pulse had forecast 133-159 seats. Matrize‑IANS pegged the number between 147 and 167 seats. Axis My India had a more conservative estimate at just 121-141 seats for the NDA. The most bullish prediction came from Today’s Chanakya, which projected 148-178 seats for the NDA.

The 190-seat trend so

far exceeds the upper projections of almost all major exit polls. Even Chanakya, one of the most optimistic pollsters, capped their NDA prediction at 178—12 seats shy of what the counting is now showing in the trends.

The NDA seemed poised to surpass its ambitious “160 paar” goal in Bihar on Friday, as trends indicated the ruling alliance was not only crossing the halfway mark of 121 seats in the 243-member assembly but moving comfortably beyond it. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD, appeared to be struggling to keep pace.

What seems to have swung the election in the NDA’s favour is the tagline: ‘Das Hazari Chunaav Hai, Doosri Taraf Katta Sarkar Hai (It is the Rs 10,000 election, it is a lawless government on the other side)’.

While the chief minister’s Rs 10,000 scheme for 1.3 crore women strengthened his appeal among female voters, contributing to a record turnout of over 71 per cent, it was the Prime Minister’s rhetoric in election rallies—invoking “katta, dunali, rangdari” (guns and lawlessness)—that reminded voters of the “jungle raj” that could return if the RJD came back to power.

The highlight was Nitish Kumar raising the old-age pension for 1.2 crore senior citizens from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100. For the elderly in Bihar, this was seen as a significant gesture from their contemporary, and doubts about the CM’s mental sharpness were largely set aside. Nitish Kumar regained his standing among the public as a ‘wise, senior leader’ enjoying widespread goodwill.