Weak El Nino In June, IMD Says India May See Weaker Monsoon And More Heatwaves

Even as heatwaves continue to scorch large parts of the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday downgraded the forecast for southwest monsoon from 92 per cent to 90 per cent of the long-period average, signaling a higher risk of below-normal rainfall over India this June to September.

The forecast carries a model error of +/- 4 per cent.

This comes as monsoon’s arrival is itself delayed compared to IMD’s initial forecast of May 26. Normally, it reaches Kerala coast by June 1, with a standard deviation of +/- seven days. However, meteorologists expected it to arrive earlier this year. The is occurring at a time when the sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are gradually evolving from neutral ENSO-conditions

to El-Nino, which is detrimental for monsoon rains.

“We are expecting weak El Nino conditions to form in June itself, which will become moderate by July and then become stronger closer to September-end,” said IMD chief Dr Mrityunjay Mohapatra.

The weather department defines the long-period average based on 1971-2020 data, which is about 87 cm rains. As per the probability forecast, there is now 84 per cent probability of below-normal rains for the entire country.

The region-wise forecast also offers no relief. “Except for the North-eastern states where the rainfall may be normal (94-106 per cent of the LPA), it is likely to be below-normal for entire Northwest India, Central India as well as South Peninsular India. The monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rain-fed agriculture areas are most likely to be under below-normal rains,” said the IMD chief. This covers most agricultural states from Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh to West Bengal.

Adding to the concerns, the weather department said the rainfall during June is also likely to be below-normal—at less than 92 per cent of the long-period average. June is the month during which monsoon travels the entire country, making its onset across different states. The sowing of crops begins in the second-half.

“Since the rainfall will be less, the day time temperatures will be higher at many places. So above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures can be expected over major parts of India. Some regions like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and southern parts of peninsula are likely to experience heatwaves and warm nights,” he added.

According to IMD, monsoon is likely to reach Kerala coast in the next one week.