Inside Bihar Election Verdict: How A Targeted Women-Centric Push Boosted NDA's Win

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was on course for a sweeping triumph in the Bihar Assembly elections on Thursday, with early trends indicating a return to power for the Nitish Kumar-led coalition

and a decisive collapse of the Opposition’s INDIA bloc. The ruling alliance appeared comfortably placed to secure a two-thirds majority, with projections suggesting 208 of the 243 seats, marking one of its strongest performances in the state in recent years.

According to the latest provisional figures, the BJP was ahead in 92 seats, followed by the JD(U) with 83. The RJD, which had emerged as the single largest party in the 2020 Assembly polls with 75 seats, suffered its steepest electoral setback in a decade, leading in barely 26 constituencies. The Congress was ahead in 5. The much-publicised debut of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party failed to translate into electoral traction, with the outfit not leading in any seat.

The numbers signalled a dramatic turnaround for the JD(U), which had been reduced to 43 seats in the last election. Contesting 101 seats this time, the party appeared to have more than doubled its footprint, buoyed by what analysts described as a carefully calibrated outreach to women voters and the consolidation of traditional support groups. The BJP, meanwhile, seemed to have improved on its 2020 tally of 74 seats, reaffirming its sustained organisational hold across large parts of Bihar.

Political analysts pointed out that the NDA’s resurgence had once again reinforced a trend visible across several recent state elections, the counter to anti-incumbency driven by targeted welfare schemes for women. The pattern, evident in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana over the past two years, appeared to have played out decisively in Bihar as well.

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s ‘Mahila Udyamita Yojana’, under which the state government transferred Rs 10,000 to eligible women and announced additional assistance of up to Rs 2 lakh for small business expansion, is believed to have been a crucial driver behind the NDA’s strong showing. The financial cushion, officials said, was intended to nudge women towards greater economic participation and household stability, a factor that found deep resonance across rural constituencies.

The phenomenon is not new. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP’s thumping victory in the 2023 Assembly polls was widely attributed to former Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s Ladli Laxmi initiative, which saw direct monthly transfers to women beneficiaries. The party went on to win 163 of the 230 seats, securing a fifth consecutive term.

Maharashtra witnessed a similar pattern in 2024, when the Shinde government rolled out the Majhi Ladki Behen scheme, offering Rs 1,500 per month to eligible women four months before polling. The BJP capitalised on the momentum, securing an unprecedented 132 seats and cementing the Mahayuti alliance’s return to power.

Jharkhand followed suit with the Maiya Samman Yojana, launched by Hemant Soren just weeks before voting. A mid-campaign increase in financial assistance, from Rs 1,000 to Rs 2,500, helped the JMM stave off anti-incumbency and retain control of the state.

Haryana’s 2024 election saw the BJP deploy the same strategy, promising monthly support of Rs 2,100 for women ahead of voting. The party secured 46 of the 90 seats, forming a single-party government for the third consecutive term in a state long known for volatile political swings. The scheme is expected to be rolled out formally by the end of 2025.

In Bihar, however, the scale of the INDIA bloc’s collapse was striking. Tejashwi Yadav, the alliance’s principal face, failed to galvanise the RJD’s traditional voter base, with the party projected to fall to 26 seats. The Congress, too, appeared to be shrinking to single digits, while the CPI-ML, once seen as a rising force in the Opposition camp, was ahead in only four seats compared with 19 in the previous Assembly.