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An intelligence assessment report accessed by CNN-News18 indicates that Bangladesh is entering a phase of “controlled breakdown”, where the deliberate erosion of state institutions is creating a dangerous vacuum. The report suggests that the weakening of law and order is not a secondary effect of the current political transition but a primary tool being leveraged by anti-India forces and Islamist groups. By weaponising street mobs, media narratives, and fishermen along the maritime borders, these elements are successfully shifting the national focus toward a confrontational stance with New Delhi.
A major point of concern highlighted in the assessment is the simmering unrest within the mid-level ranks of the Bangladesh Army. Intelligence inputs
indicate significant frustration among officers over the military’s current deployment. Pushed into a reluctant role as first responders due to the paralysis of the police force, mid-level officers are reportedly disillusioned by the lack of clear political backing or legal cover for their actions on the ground. This morale crisis is being further exacerbated by perceived interference from Pakistan’s ISI, which is allegedly working to deepen fissures within the military establishment.
The report also points to a pattern of “selective enforcement” against rioters, which has reinforced a belief within the security ranks that the situation is being allowed to deteriorate purposefully. While the top army leadership appears to be exercising strategic restraint to avoid a direct takeover, this very hesitation is creating the conditions for a total loss of institutional credibility. For India, the primary worry remains the potential for a massive spillover effect; with borders vulnerable and the internal security of Bangladesh in a tailspin, the risk of cross-border infiltration and regional instability has reached a critical threshold.
