Will Gold Cross Rs 1.5 Lakh Soon? Analysts Discuss Factors To Boost Bullion Prices

Gold prices have cooled slightly after scaling fresh record highs, but analysts say the broader uptrend remains intact, keeping alive the possibility of the yellow metal crossing the psychologically important

Rs 1.5 lakh level in the coming months.

According to Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, precious metals retreated after touching record levels as immediate safe-haven demand eased. Gold and silver had surged to record highs of $4,650 and $93 per ounce, respectively, before pulling back after Donald Trump refrained from announcing fresh tariffs on imports of critical minerals. Instead, the US administration signalled a preference for negotiations with foreign nations to secure supplies and reduce supply-chain risks, while keeping the option of import restrictions open if talks fail.

Geopolitical tensions, which had earlier fuelled safe-haven buying, also showed signs of easing. Trump indicated a wait-and-see approach on Iran after saying he had been assured that executions of protesters had stopped, reducing fears of an imminent US military response. This tempered some of the risk premium built into gold prices.

Gold’s Structure Remains Strong

From a technical perspective, however, Chainani believes gold’s structure remains strong. She noted that gold has decisively broken above its earlier resistance at $4,570 per ounce, opening the door to higher levels. The next key targets, she said, are $4,745-4,750, which translates to around Rs 1.46 lakh per 10 grams, and $4,966-4,970, or roughly Rs 1.52 lakh per 10 grams, based on Fibonacci extensions. Silver, after touching its resistance near $93 (around Rs 2.91 lakh per kg), could see profit booking and a retracement towards $84, or about Rs 2.6 lakh per kg, before resuming its upward move.

Macro factors continue to underpin bullion prices. Market participants are closely watching how aggressively the US central bank may ease monetary policy amid global uncertainty. Softer-than-expected US producer price inflation for November, along with benign consumer inflation data in December, has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve has room to deliver multiple rate cuts this year.

Recent Dip In Gold Does Not Alter Larger Bullish Narrative

Echoing this view, Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive, as cited by Reuters, said the recent dip does not alter the larger bullish narrative for gold. “Today, we’re seeing that gold is down a bit after (Trump) said maybe we’re not going to intervene in Iran, staving off safe-haven demand, but the larger story (of the metal’s rise) is not going away.”

Adding to market focus is uncertainty around US monetary leadership. Trump said he has no plans to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, despite a Justice Department criminal investigation, but added it was “too early” to say what he might ultimately do. Investors are also awaiting US weekly jobless claims data, which could offer further clues on the Fed’s policy path. Traders currently expect two interest rate cuts this year.

Historically, a low-interest-rate environment, combined with geopolitical and economic uncertainty, has favoured non-yielding assets such as gold. This backdrop continues to support bullish sentiment in bullion markets.

In India, gold prices remain elevated. The price of 24-carat gold rose to Rs 1,43,180 per 10 grams, while 22-carat gold was quoted at Rs 1,31,250 per 10 grams, excluding GST and making charges. Silver prices stood at around Rs 2,95,000 per kg in the spot market.

Internationally, spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,608.77 per ounce, after hitting a record $4,642.72 earlier in the week. US gold futures for February delivery slipped 0.5% to $4,613. Spot silver fell 3.4% to $89.63 per ounce after touching an all-time high of $93.57.

While near-term volatility and profit booking cannot be ruled out, analysts say a combination of technical strength, expectations of US rate cuts and lingering geopolitical risks could push gold towards, and potentially beyond, the Rs 1.5 lakh mark if global conditions remain supportive.