India's Q4 FY26 GDP Data To Be Released Today: Here's What Analysts Expect

India’s economic growth is expected to remain robust in the January-March quarter of FY26, with most economists projecting gross domestic product (GDP) expansion in the range of 6.8-7.4 per cent. The official GDP data for the fourth quarter and revised full-year FY26 estimates will be released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) at around 4 pm on Friday.

The GDP numbers will provide a clearer picture of how the Indian economy performed amid global uncertainties, including the impact of geopolitical tensions in West Asia that intensified towards the end of the fiscal year.

Q4 GDP Growth Seen Above Year-Ago Level

Analysts broadly expect India’s GDP growth in Q4 FY26 to be higher than the 7.1 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of FY25.

Research

firm CareEdge has projected GDP growth at 6.8-7.0 per cent for the March quarter. Bank of Baroda expects growth in the range of 7.2-7.3 per cent, while IDFC FIRST Bank has estimated growth at 7.4 per cent. ICICI Bank expects the economy to expand by 7.1 per cent during the quarter.

According to Bank of Baroda, stronger growth in utilities and services sectors is likely to offset moderation in agriculture, mining, manufacturing and some contact-intensive sectors.

FY26 Growth Likely Around 7.4%

India’s GDP growth during the first three quarters of FY26 stood at 7.7 per cent, compared with 7.1 per cent during the same period a year ago.

With Q4 growth expected to remain above 7 per cent, economists estimate that the full-year FY26 GDP growth could come in around 7.4 per cent. This would be slightly below the government’s second advance estimate of 7.6 per cent released in February.

The revised annual figure will be closely watched as it incorporates updated fiscal data and corporate earnings information available after the advance estimates were published.

Utilities, Construction May Support Growth

Bank of Baroda expects utilities and construction to emerge as key growth drivers in the fourth quarter. The report noted that electricity demand received support from the onset of intense heatwave conditions in March 2026. As a result, growth in the electricity and utilities segment is expected to improve compared with the year-ago period.

Construction activity also remained resilient. Strong revenue growth and profitability reported by infrastructure companies during the quarter could lead to an upward revision in construction sector growth estimates.

Services Sector Seen Maintaining Momentum

The services sector is expected to remain the biggest contributor to economic growth. Bank of Baroda estimates services sector growth at 9.1 per cent in Q4 FY26, significantly higher than 6.8 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter last year.

The improvement is expected to be supported by healthy banking activity. Average bank credit growth during January-March 2026 stood at 14.3 per cent, while deposit growth also remained strong, reflecting sustained economic activity and demand for credit.

Some Sectors May See Moderation

Despite the overall positive outlook, economists expect growth in agriculture, mining and manufacturing to moderate compared with the year-ago period.

Higher energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict are believed to have weighed on some sectors during the quarter. Rising prices of commercial LPG, diesel and other fuels increased input costs for businesses.

Agriculture growth is expected to slow from the previous year’s level, while mining growth may see a sharp moderation. Manufacturing is also projected to grow at a slower pace than in Q4 FY25, although it is still expected to remain healthy.

Outlook For FY27

Looking ahead, economists expect India’s growth momentum to moderate in FY27 as the full impact of higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainties filters through the economy.

Bank of Baroda expects GDP growth in FY27 to remain in the range of 6.5-6.8 per cent. Risks from elevated fuel prices, weather-related disruptions and global economic uncertainty are likely to influence growth prospects in the coming quarters.

All eyes will now be on the official GDP release at 4 pm, which will offer the most comprehensive assessment of India’s economic performance during FY26 and set the tone for growth expectations in FY27.