Opinion | India-Afghanistan Cargo Flights: Quiet Realignment Reshaping South Asia’s Strategic Map

India and Afghanistan’s decision to launch direct air cargo flights is far more than a logistical upgrade; it is a geopolitical signal. A new axis is taking shape in South Asia, and it does not revolve around Pakistan anymore. By enabling direct trade, New Delhi and Kabul are quietly realigning regional power dynamics, reflecting both countries’ deepening estrangement from Islamabad and their desire to chart independent economic futures.

The announcement by India’s Ministry of External Affairs, made after Afghan Commerce Minister Alhaj Nooruddin Azizi’s week-long visit to Delhi, marks the most significant India-Afghanistan economic engagement since the Taliban takeover in 2021. The flights will allow Afghanistan to transport fresh fruits, medicinal

herbs, and other perishables quickly, bypassing the chronic delays caused by Pakistani transit routes. For Kabul, this is not just economic diversification; it is liberation from Pakistan’s decades-long chokehold on Afghan trade.

Pakistan’s recent decision to seal its border with Afghanistan after deadly military clashes only accelerated Kabul’s push to find alternatives. Islamabad has repeatedly used border closures as a strategic lever, weaponising geography to maintain political pressure. Afghanistan’s response this time has been striking: rather than bend, it has turned sharply toward India. The request to set up cargo hubs on Afghan soil and the agreement to station commercial representatives in each other’s embassies highlight a rapidly expanding partnership that Islamabad can neither control nor ignore.

The geopolitical subtext is unmistakable. As Kabul and New Delhi strengthen ties, Pakistan sees its traditional sphere of influence slipping away. Islamabad has long accused India of supporting ‘anti-Pakistan’ elements in Afghanistan, a claim Delhi has consistently rejected. But the reality is this: Pakistan is losing the very leverage it once assumed was permanent.

The new cargo flights are only one aspect of the evolving relationship. India and Afghanistan are also turning toward Iran’s Chabahar port, another route that circumvents Pakistan entirely. This trilateral economic corridor has long irritated Islamabad, but now, with Kabul actively participating, it becomes a potential strategic counterweight to Pakistan’s role in regional trade.

Amid these shifts, border tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan have flared dangerously. This week, the Taliban accused Pakistan of killing 10 people, including children, in cross-border strikes, allegations Pakistan denies. But what is clear is that the trust deficit between the two neighbours is now at its lowest in years. Pakistan blames the Taliban for harbouring anti-Pakistan militant groups; Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of violating its sovereignty. The Qatar-Turkey-brokered ceasefire collapsed in October, and both sides have traded fire repeatedly since.

In this volatile environment, India’s re-engagement offers Kabul not just economic opportunity but a diplomatic counterbalance. Former Indian diplomat Sanjiv Kohli captures the shift succinctly: as Pakistan-Afghanistan ties crumble, India is stepping in “to prevent spillover of insecurity in the wider region.”

Delhi’s approach is cautious; there is still no formal recognition of the Taliban, but it is pragmatic. India has consistently provided humanitarian aid, including earthquake relief, even during periods of minimal diplomatic contact. This has built goodwill that Pakistan, with its punitive border closures and coercive tactics, has squandered.

Afghanistan, heavily reliant on agriculture, has already begun diverting exports to Iran and Central Asia. Pakistan’s refusal to allow Indian flights through its airspace has further marginalised connectivity options. In this context, direct India-Afghanistan air cargo links are transformative: they represent an economic lifeline for Kabul and a strategic opening for New Delhi.

The Taliban, for its part, is actively courting Indian investment. Minister Azizi offered five-year tax exemptions and free land to Indian companies, a clear sign that Kabul sees India as a long-term economic partner, not merely an aid provider. Current bilateral trade stands at about US$1 billion, far short of its potential given Afghanistan’s resource wealth, including minerals, hydrocarbons, and rare earths. New Delhi, having previously built major infrastructure projects such as the Afghan Parliament building and the Salma Dam, understands the value of economic presence in shaping political influence.

Experts believe the evolving relationship is both inevitable and mutually beneficial. King’s College London professor Harsh Pant notes that the Taliban regime recognises India’s economic weight and needs it for development. Connectivity challenges remain, but the political will on both sides is visible like never before. And as India recalibrates its Afghanistan policy after the 2021 power shift, it is doing so with a clear objective: maintain influence, stabilise the region, and counter Pakistan’s attempts to dominate Afghanistan’s strategic space.

Recent high-level visits, including Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s historic trip to India, underline the speed of this diplomatic thaw. Independent political commentator Yashwant Deshmukh argues that India has accepted the reality that the Taliban government is here to stay, while Afghan leaders recognise that Pakistan’s support comes with strings attached. The Taliban-ISI relationship, once considered ironclad, is fraying, replaced by suspicion and open hostility.

This is why Afghanistan’s rapprochement with India is not just a bilateral story but a regional realignment. It symbolises a post-Pakistan Afghan foreign policy, one that looks to India, Iran, and Central Asia rather than relying on a single, often adversarial neighbour.

For India, this is an opportunity to rebuild strategic depth in a country central to its regional vision. For Afghanistan, it is a pathway to economic resilience, diversification, and diplomatic autonomy. And for Pakistan, it is a warning sign: coercive border politics and inflexible security doctrines are pushing its neighbours away, accelerating a geopolitical shift that may be impossible to reverse.

The new air cargo link between India and Afghanistan may appear technical, but its implications are profound. It marks the beginning of a new chapter, one where Kabul’s economic future is less tied to Pakistan’s whims and more aligned with a wider regional network in which India plays a central role.

The writer is a technocrat, political analyst, and author. He pens national, geopolitical, and social issues. His social media handle is @prosenjitnth. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.