Cancer Deaths Could Rise By 75% In Next 25 Years, New Cases Estimated To Increase By 61%: Study

Annual cancer deaths could increase by nearly 75 per cent in the next 25 years, reaching 18.6 million, driven by a country’s economic growth and an ageing population, according to a global study in The Lancet journal.

New cancer cases are projected to rise by 61 per cent to 30.5 million by 2050.

Researchers estimated that since 1990, cancer deaths have risen by 74 per cent to 10.4 million and new cases have more than doubled to 18.5 million by 2023, predominantly affecting those in low and middle-income countries.

Cancer Cases In India Increased By 26 Per Cent

The study shows that India saw a 26.4 per cent increase in cancer rates from 1990 to 2023, among the highest globally, while China experienced an 18.5 per cent decline.

Researchers highlighted

that over 40 per cent of global cancer deaths are linked to 44 preventable risk factors, including tobacco use, unhealthy diets, and high blood sugar, presenting a significant prevention opportunity.

“Despite the clear need for action, cancer control policies and implementation remain underprioritised in global health, and there is insufficient funding to address this challenge in many settings,” said lead author Dr Lisa Force from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the US’ University of Washington, which coordinates the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.

Data From 204 Countries Evaluated

The GBD study analyses data from 204 countries and territories to identify disease trends and patterns and quantify health loss and risk factors over time and place.

The researchers noted that global death rates fell by 24 per cent between 1990 and 2023, but disparities in reduction rates persisted between high- and low-income countries.

New cancer case rates worsened in low-income (up by 24 per cent) and lower-middle-income countries (up by 29 per cent), highlighting disproportionate growth in regions with fewer resources, the team said.

“Cancer remains an important contributor to disease burden globally and our study highlights how it is anticipated to grow substantially over the coming decades, with disproportionate growth in countries with limited resources,” Dr Force said.

She added that greater efforts are required to reduce disparities in health service delivery — such as access to accurate and timely diagnosis, and quality treatment — in ensuring equitable cancer outcomes the world over.

The authors wrote, “The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30.5 million cases and 18.6 million deaths from cancer globally, 60.7 per cent and 74.5 per cent increases from 2024, respectively.”

(PTI inputs)