Will RBI Slash Interest Rates Tomorrow? MPC Meeting Outcome Time, Where To Watch & What To Expect

RBI MPC October Outcome Date and Time: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) commenced its three-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Monday, September 29, 2025, with markets closely monitoring the proceedings for indications on policy rates and their potential impact on Indian equities.

The meeting, chaired by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra and comprising six members, started on September 29 and will run until Wednesday, October 1. The outcome—including the MPC’s decision on the repo rate and other key policy measures—will be announced at a press conference on October 1.

RBI MPC Meeting Expectations

Economists broadly expect the MPC to maintain the status quo on policy rates, which would mark the second consecutive pause. Between February and June 2025, the RBI had lowered

the repo rate by a cumulative 100 basis points (bps) to 5.5%, where it currently stands.

“The Monetary Policy Committee is anticipated to maintain the status quo on the repo rate in its October 2025 review. This view is supported by the positive impact of GST reforms on demand, stronger-than-expected Q1 FY26 GDP growth, and an inflation trajectory that, while lowered due to GST rationalisation (FY26 average now ~2.6%), is expected to slope upwards thereafter,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA Ltd.

India’s GDP growth rose to a five-quarter high of 7.8% in Q1 FY26, compared with 6.5% in the same period last year and 7.4% in Q4 FY25.

The government recently rolled out a two-slab GST structure of 5% and 18% (effective September 22) by abolishing the previous four-rate regime—an overhaul expected to further boost consumption.

“RBI is likely to remain on pause in October, awaiting clarity on GST impact and tariffs,” said Gaura Sengupta, Chief Economist at IDFC FIRST Bank. She added that the RBI’s growth outlook remains positive due to stronger rural demand and sustained government capex, even as urban consumption and private capex remain muted.

However, some experts see scope for a rate cut.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor at State Bank of India (SBI), said there is a “merit and rationale in going for a rate cut,” but stressed that it would require calibrated communication given the higher threshold for cuts post-June.

“No point in committing a Type 2 error (no rate cut with neutral stance) in September also… A 25-bps rate cut in September is the best possible option for RBI,” he noted in a recent report, adding that it would signal the RBI’s forward-looking stance.

Economists at Nomura expect two additional cuts in the October and December meetings. “As the market is currently only pricing in around 10 bps of cuts over the next few months, we see the risk/reward as attractive,” Nomura said in a report.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects inflation to remain benign on account of softer food prices and the pass-through effects of lower GST rates. Headline inflation rose to 2.7% in August from an eight-year low of 1.61% in July. “Assuming a partial pass-through of lower GST rates, we recently lowered our headline inflation forecasts for CY25 and FY26 by 0.2 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points to 2.8% YoY,” Goldman Sachs said.

External Factors

The MPC meeting coincides with ongoing India-US trade negotiations following US President Donald Trump’s decision to hike tariffs on Indian goods by an additional 25% (effective August 27), bringing the total to 50%. The outcome of these talks could significantly influence India’s growth outlook.

The meeting also follows the US Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of 2025, lowering its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4–4.25%.

Previous MPC Decisions

• February 2025: Repo rate cut by 25 bps
• April 2025: Repo rate cut by 25 bps to 6%
• June 2025: A 50-bps jumbo cut lowered the repo rate to 5.5%
• August 2025: Repo rate held steady at 5.5% with a neutral stance

The October decision is being closely watched for signs of further easing or continued pause as India navigates evolving global and domestic challenges.