Qatar Or Bust? How Lando Norris Can Win The 2025 F1 World Championship In The 'Ifs And Buts' GP

Yes, watching Max Verstappen stalk his prey on track as he hunts a fifth straight F1 world title is endlessly entertaining.

But here’s the plot twist we can’t ignore: Lando Norris is one race weekend away from becoming a first-time world champion.

And as terrifying as “Mad Max” can be — and he is terrifying — Norris hasn’t stumbled into this position. He’s earned it, lap by lap, with ice–cold consistency all season long (Las Vegas meltdown excluded, let’s just collectively pretend that didn’t happen).

So let’s lay it out plainly: Lando Norris can clinch the 2025 Drivers’ Championship this weekend at the Qatar Grand Prix.

But… how?

Before his DQ disaster in Vegas, Norris had built himself a comfy 30–point buffer over teammate Oscar Piastri.

But with

both McLarens wiped from the results, that gap rewinds back to 24 points — the same as the start of that doomed weekend.

There are 58 points left on the table across Qatar (a Sprint weekend) and Abu Dhabi.

Norris cannot win the title in Saturday’s Sprint.

But he will be world champion if he ends Sunday’s GP 26+ points ahead of both Piastri and Verstappen.

To put it simply:

If Norris outscores both rivals by 2 points or more on Sunday, he’s the world champion.

One tidy scenario: finish top six in the Sprint + win the GP. Job done.

But here’s the spicier route:

There’s also a scenario where he only needs to extend his lead by a single point — as long as he wins the Grand Prix.

Why? Because that would give him 8 wins for the year and guarantee he wins any end-of-season tiebreak.

Yes, Piastri could still reach eight wins in Abu Dhabi, but Norris has him crushed in second place (eight to three).

And Verstappen? If Norris wins Qatar, Max can max out at seven wins.

Complicated? Absolutely. Chaotic? Fully. Peak F1? Without question.

And that’s exactly why these final two weekends are poised to give us one of the most dramatic championship climaxes in years.

So who takes it? The calm-in-chaos leader Norris? Piastri, looking to reclaim his early-season dominance? Or Verstappen — the living, breathing F1 inevitability?

Strap in. Qatar’s about to make things very, very interesting.