India's GDP Data To Be Released Today: Know What RBI Expects

India’s economic growth is likely to remain resilient in the first quarter of FY27, with GDP data for the April-June 2026 quarter set to be released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) at 4 pm today (August 31). The data will offer the first major reading of how the economy performed amid geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil prices and a weaker global trade environment.

What Are Economists Expecting From India’s GDP Data?

Economists broadly expect GDP growth to remain above 7 per cent. A Moneycontrol poll of 17 economists placed the median estimate at 7.3 per cent, while forecasts range between 6.6 per cent and 8 per cent. A Reuters poll of 58 economists put the median estimate at 7.1 per cent. The figure would

mark some moderation from the 7.8 per cent growth recorded in the March 2026 quarter, but would still indicate a strong pace of economic expansion.

What Is RBI’s GDP Growth Forecast For FY27?

The Reserve Bank Of India (RBI) maintained a relatively optimistic growth outlook, with its FY27 real GDP growth projection at 6.8 per cent. The central bank’s forecast is lower than several private-sector estimates, reflecting risks from geopolitical uncertainty, elevated energy prices and weaker global demand. Meanwhile, EY expects India’s real GDP growth to remain between 7 per cent and 7.2 per cent in FY27, supported by strong domestic demand and continued government capital expenditure. It expects nominal GDP growth to reach 12.5-13 per cent. EY said India’s growth prospects remain relatively strong despite geopolitical uncertainty, elevated crude oil prices and a weaker global trade environment.

Is India’s Industrial Activity Showing Signs Of Strength?

Industrial activity provided some support to the outlook. India’s overall Index Of Industrial Production (IIP) growth accelerated to a 23-month high of 7.3 per cent in June 2026, taking average industrial growth in the first quarter of FY27 to 5.7 per cent, the highest in eight quarters. Manufacturing output rose 7.8 per cent in June, with electrical equipment, motor vehicles, textiles and food products among the stronger-performing segments.

Are There Signs Economic Momentum Is Slowing?

Some high-frequency indicators suggest that momentum may be moderating. Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.5 in July from 54.2 in June, while services PMI declined more sharply to 53.3 from 57.4. Both indices remained above the 50 mark, indicating continued expansion but the moderation will be closely watched for signs of a broader slowdown.

Can Government Spending Keep Supporting Growth?

Government capital expenditure is another key factor. According to EY, government capex growth recovered sharply to 23.7 per cent in the first quarter of FY27 after contracting 23.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY26. The fiscal deficit stood at 18.2 per cent of the annual budget target, suggesting that the government has retained room to support investment while staying on its fiscal consolidation path.

Is Consumer Spending Still Holding Up?

Private consumption and domestic demand will be closely watched in the GDP data. Strong household spending would indicate that higher energy prices and global uncertainty have not yet significantly weakened consumer demand. Government-led infrastructure spending and investment will also offer clues about whether the growth cycle is broadening beyond consumption and public expenditure.

What Will Manufacturing And Services Tell Us About Growth?

Manufacturing and services activity will provide another important signal. While both sectors remained in expansion territory, the moderation in PMI readings could point to some loss of momentum going into the second quarter. Credit growth, however, has remained supportive. Gross bank credit growth accelerated to a 25-month high of 18.6 per cent in June, pointing to continued financial support for economic activity.