Gold to deliver 10-12% returns; silver offers higher gains but with sharper swings: WealthEnrich’s Advait Arora

Gold is likely to deliver 10-12% returns going forward, while silver could see sharper but more volatile moves, according to Advait Arora, Founder of WealthEnrich, who believes the recent correction in precious metals does not signal a structural reversal.

Gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven, has slipped amid the West Asia conflict, pressured by a stronger US dollar, profit-booking and concerns around higher interest rates driven by oil-led inflation. Silver, too, has remained volatile. Over the past decade, gold has surged more than 220%, while silver has gained 165%, even as crude prices—particularly Urals and US crude—have rallied sharply in 2026.

Arora said the recent rally in gold is not a bubble but part of a broader structural shift. “It’s not a bubble. It’s more of a global reallocation of funds,” he told CNBC-TV18, pointing to rising central bank purchases, de-dollarisation trends and geopolitical risks as key drivers. He added that gold and silver have already priced in a significant geopolitical premium since 2025, following a sharp rally in both assets.

Despite the recent dip, Arora expects gold to remain a stable wealth preservation tool. “I’m looking at easily 10% to 12% growth going forward,” he said, noting that gold has historically delivered steady compounded returns over long periods. In contrast, he described silver as “like an accelerator… very high beta”, warning that while upside may be higher, volatility will also be significantly amplified.

He recommends investors maintain a balanced allocation, with 5–10% exposure to gold and a calibrated mix with silver, suggesting a 70:30 split between the two metals rather than an aggressive tilt towards silver.

On the broader market, Arora flagged rising crude prices and a weakening rupee as key risks for India’s economy and equities. With crude moving towards $110–115 a barrel and the rupee under pressure, he cautioned that the combined impact could weigh on growth, inflation and corporate earnings. Sectors such as aviation, paints, oil marketing companies and other energy-intensive industries could face margin pressure, while banks may see slower loan growth amid potential rate hikes.

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Even so, he maintained that equities should remain the core of investor portfolios, highlighting that Nifty valuations at around 20 times earnings are not stretched and that mid- and small-cap stocks are beginning to offer value after recent corrections.

In the near term, Arora advised caution given elevated geopolitical uncertainty. “There is no point jumping the gun and taking a call straight away,” he said, adding that investors should avoid panic selling and instead use corrections to gradually build exposure to quality stocks.

He expects market sentiment to improve if geopolitical tensions ease and crude prices stabilise, but warned that prolonged disruption could lead to inflationary pressures and potential downward revisions to India’s growth outlook.