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What is the story about?
The Nifty 50 index begins the April F&O series on Wednesday, April 1, after reporting its worst series since March 2020. In fact, the 3,093 points that the index shed last series, is the worst-ever drop on record for the index in point terms.
Historically, the April series has been a strong one for the Nifty, with gains seen in four out of the last five years.
In fact, after the 26% fall that the Nifty saw during the Covid-19 onset month of March 2020, the index had seen a 14% rebound in April.
Rollovers for the Nifty have been on the higher side this time around, heading into the April series. At 77.7%, the figure is the highest so far this year, and higher than the three-month average of 70.4%.
The Nifty Open Interest at the start of the series is also the highest in 2026 so far, in excess of 2 crore shares.
FIIs continue to remain net short on index futures going into the new series. However, the net long position figure is higher than the last three months, although it remains in the mid-teens levels.
Even as history is in favour of the bulls going into the April series, the biggest trigger for any form of reversal from near 52-week lows will be a de-escalation in the US-Iran war and a subsequent drop in oil and other commodity prices.
The next policy statement from the Reserve Bank of India comes on April 8, the first after the war began in West Asia. The commentary on the currency from the central bank will also be key, after it plunged to record lows on Monday.
Foreign investors continue to sell at record levels in the Indian markets and their flows will also be key to market sentiment this month.
Had it not been for the war, the biggest trigger for the markets would have been the start of the fourth quarter earnings season and updates from companies on the road ahead. That will begin as early as today with Auto sales reports for March and other companies coming out with business updates for the quarter.
| F&O Series | Returns (Points) |
| March 2026 | -3093 |
| February 2026 | 249 |
| January 2026 | -763 |
| December 2025 | 54 |
| November 2025 | -51 |
| October 2025 | 1,325 |
Historically, the April series has been a strong one for the Nifty, with gains seen in four out of the last five years.
In fact, after the 26% fall that the Nifty saw during the Covid-19 onset month of March 2020, the index had seen a 14% rebound in April.
| April Series Year | Returns (Points) | Returns (%) |
| 2021 | 570 | 4 |
| 2022 | -220 | -1.3 |
| 2023 | 834 | 4.9 |
| 2024 | 243 | 1.1 |
| 2025 | 655 | 2.8 |
Rollovers for the Nifty have been on the higher side this time around, heading into the April series. At 77.7%, the figure is the highest so far this year, and higher than the three-month average of 70.4%.
| Series | Rollovers (%) |
| April | 77.7 |
| March | 68.2 |
| February | 70.7 |
| January | 72.3 |
The Nifty Open Interest at the start of the series is also the highest in 2026 so far, in excess of 2 crore shares.
| Month | Nifty Open Interest |
| April | 2.09 Crore |
| March | 1.34 Crore |
| February | 1.62 Crore |
| January | 1.4 Crore |
FIIs continue to remain net short on index futures going into the new series. However, the net long position figure is higher than the last three months, although it remains in the mid-teens levels.
| Month | FII Longs In Futures |
| April | 15% |
| March | 14% |
| February | 12% |
| January | 9% |
Even as history is in favour of the bulls going into the April series, the biggest trigger for any form of reversal from near 52-week lows will be a de-escalation in the US-Iran war and a subsequent drop in oil and other commodity prices.
The next policy statement from the Reserve Bank of India comes on April 8, the first after the war began in West Asia. The commentary on the currency from the central bank will also be key, after it plunged to record lows on Monday.
Foreign investors continue to sell at record levels in the Indian markets and their flows will also be key to market sentiment this month.
Had it not been for the war, the biggest trigger for the markets would have been the start of the fourth quarter earnings season and updates from companies on the road ahead. That will begin as early as today with Auto sales reports for March and other companies coming out with business updates for the quarter.
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