Indian Markets: A week defined by volatility, reform and optimism

Hola! It's the weekend, you've just managed to get through a really exhausting week, but want to know how the markets were. But don't know where to begin? Don't worry, we have you covered! Starting today, every weekend, we'll bring to you MARKETS ESPRESSO, the CNBC-TV18 Newsletter that summarises all the big market voices through the week brewed into one single shot, just so that your afternoons are peaceful and less chaotic!



What a week it was for the market. Yes, we ended lower. Yes, at the start of the week it almost felt as if we'll be much lower than what we are today. No sign of any progress in US-Iran talks, continued outflows from foreign investors, the constant threat of oil prices inching back to the $100 a barrel mark and the end of the earnings season meant no significant directional cue either, volatility was the adjective for the week. But somehow, huffing and puffing, we've managed to defend some key levels on the downside.

The other aspect was marked by optimism. Big market voices still believing in the India story. Of course, that belief comes with the "conditions apply tag" but the fact that foreign investors have not yet fully given up on India, is something we'll take heart from and once things get better, they'll return to the market as well! Here are some of the big voices we spoke to through the week.



Jane Fraser, Chair & CEO of Citi does not want investors to lose sight of India's long-term story amidst short-term market fluctuations. Although she did acknowledge that India's higher valuations compared to other markets and relatively lower private capex contributed to this investor caution, any form of easing on foreign investment taxation could help improve short-term sentiments. You can read the full story here.

https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/dont-lose-sight-of-indias-long-term-story-says-citi-ceo-jane-fraser-19919521.htm



The other word of optimism comes from Arbind Maheshwari, the Head of India equities at Bank of America Securities, who believes that the investors should not be pessimistic about FII outflows. He spoke of the market resilience with GST collections at their peak and a potential pick-up in earnings too. He also spoke of the need for capital gains tax reforms to get FIIs back to Indian markets. Maheshwari's sentiments were echoed by India CEO Vikram Sahu, who also called India a compelling investment destination. Watch here and read here.

https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/bofa-vikram-sahu-sees-strong-long-term-investor-interest-in-india-19916756.htm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izUhSb7JSTk



Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley is an eternal optimist, or the eternal India bull. Even if you try giving him a glass 90% empty, he'll find a way to convince you that how the glass being 10% full is more important. He highlighted how corporate equity issuances can bring foreign investors back into Indian markets. You can read the entire interview right here.
https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/global-artificial-intelligence-investment-cycle-may-delay-return-of-foreign-flows-to-india-morgan-stanley-ridham-desai-19918347.htm

The other big voice was David Hauner of Bank of America Securities, who warned that the currency could weaken against the US Dollar as the rising US yields continue to pressure Emerging Markets. He too, sounded optimistic about the long-term outlook. Full interview here.
https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/bofa-securities-rupee-98-us-yields-oil-emerging-markets-outlook-19917850.htm



Citi's South Asia CEO Amol Gupte was quizzed about the exodus of foreign investors and he had a different take on the same. He said that investors are still backing strong Indian businesses despite the global uncertainties through quality IPOs. Gupte is also in the camp of Indian economic fundamentals being strong. Full interview here.
https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/citi-india-ipos-fpi-selling-long-term-growth-story-19918483.htm



These big market voices are still optimistic on India's prospects. Things may not be perfect but they are not in the dumps either. Measures announced by the RBI on Friday further strengthened the currency against the Dollar. The Q4 and FY26 GDP numbers reported on Friday evening breezed past estimates. Yes, the Q1 GDP number will be the key to watch, but the Q4 number also includes one month of the Iran war so that needs to be accounted for as well. The bull Vs bear tug of war will continue, but we will find our way. We shall overcome. Until next time! Do subscribe to Markets Espresso to know more about all the big market voices through the week!