Rupee ends flat as modest inflows counter global risk-off pressure

The rupee ended flat on Tuesday as modest portfolio inflows and intermittent dollar sales from state-run banks helped cushion the impact from weak global equities and regional currencies.

The rupee closed at 88.6050 against the US dollar, nearly unchanged from its close at 88.63 in the previous session.

Asian currencies were down between 0.1% and 0.4% while MSCI’s gauge of regional stocks fell over 2%, tracking an extended selloff on Wall Street overnight as investors turned cautious ahead of a key earnings report and a deluge of US economic data.

Futures indicated that US stocks were set to open modestly lower.

India’s benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 ended the day a tad lower but fared better than their regional counterparts.

The rupee was influenced by both portfolio inflows and outflows, alongside state-run banks’ intermittent dollar sales, which limited the currency’s decline, traders said.

Unless the Reserve Bank of India steps away from defending the 88.80 level or there is a breakthrough in US-India trade negotiations, expect rupee to hover in a 88.40-88.80 range, a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.

Sluggish exports to the US drove India’s merchandise trade deficit to a record high last month.

"At this run rate, the current account deficit could more than double in FY26; eventually, rupee depreciation may act as an automatic stabiliser,” economists at HSBC said in a note. The rupee has declined about 1% since tariffs of up to 50% on Indian exports came into effect.

Meanwhile, the dollar index was steady at 99.5 as investors awaited US data for signals on the Federal Reserve’s next move. Odds of a Fed rate cut next month have slipped to a little under 50% currently, down from near 67% a week earlier.

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