Gold, silver edge lower: What’s driving the cautious market mood

Gold and silver prices edged lower on Friday (April  10), as investors reassessed safe-haven demand amid a fragile US–Iran ceasefire and mixed global cues, even as underlying geopolitical risks and inflation concerns kept downside limited.

COMEX gold was last at $4,783.70 per ounce, down $34.30 or 0.71% an ounce. COMEX silver slipped to $75.540 per ounce, down 1.17% an ounce.

The pullback in precious metals comes asAsian equities ticked higher, with MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index rising 0.5%, signalling a tentative shift toward risk assets. However, gains remained capped as markets questioned the durability of the ceasefire and monitored ongoing tensions involving Israel and Lebanon.

Analysts said gold’s reaction reflects a balancing act between easing immediate risk sentiment and persistent uncertainty.

“Gold typically softens when geopolitical tensions ease, as investors rotate toward riskier assets,” said Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead at VT Markets. “But the current ceasefire appears fragile, with reported violations and lack of clarity, which could keep safe-haven demand intact.”

Range-bound outlook amid crosscurrents

Despite the decline, gold continues to find support from lingering geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainty. The Strait of Hormuz disruption and elevated oil prices—Brent crude hovering near $96 per barrel—have added to inflation concerns, a key driver for bullion markets.

Higher inflation could complicate the US  Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory. Recent data showed the core PCE price index rising 0.4% for a second straight month, reinforcing expectations that interest rates may stay elevated for longer.

Higher yields typically weigh on gold, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. The US 10-year Treasury yield remained elevated near 4.28%, while the dollar index edged higher.

Maxwell noted that the near-term direction for gold hinges on both inflation data and geopolitical developments.

A sustained ceasefire combined with stronger inflation could push gold lower
Renewed tensions or softer inflation prints may support prices

“In the short term, gold is likely to remain range-bound, with continued volatility rather than a clear directional trend,” he said.

Market focus ahead

Investors are now closely watching incoming inflation data and central bank signals, alongside developments in the West Asia. Any escalation in geopolitical tensions or disruption to energy supplies could quickly revive safe-haven demand.

For now, precious metals appear to be navigating a narrow range, caught between easing risk aversion and persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.

-With Reuters inputs