Copper could soar to ‘stratospheric new highs’ amid US hoarding

Copper prices have surged this year, reaching multiple record highs as supply disruptions and fears of US tariffs fuel strong demand. Analysts predict the rally could extend well into 2026.

Citi analysts highlight that rising demand from the energy transition and artificial intelligence sectors is set to drive copper prices even higher. The metal is essential for electrification projects, grid expansions, and data centre build-outs, where it is used for wiring, power transmission, and cooling infrastructure.

Citi also points to projected copper deficits due to constrained mine supply, coupled with continued US “hoarding” of the metal to exploit arbitrage opportunities. The brokerage expects the US to retain significant global copper inventory and, in a bullish scenario, draw further on depleted stocks outside the country. Citi forecasts copper prices could reach $13,000 per ton in early 2026 and climb as high as $15,000 per ton by the second quarter.

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Echoing this view, Avatar Commodities CEO Andrew Glass predicts copper could reach “stratospheric new highs,” particularly as US physical hoarding continues to limit international availability. He notes that the current rally reflects a “highly irregular distortion,” driven more by tariff anticipation than traditional supply-demand dynamics, with Chinese demand underperforming in recent months.

ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey expects prices to hit $12,000 per ton by the second quarter of 2026, warning that higher copper costs could squeeze margins in energy-intensive industries.

On the market front, spot copper prices hit $11,816 per ton on the London Metals Exchange on Friday, December 12, with three-month futures closing at $11,515, underscoring copper’s role as a leading indicator of global economic health.