The federal government’s closure has elevated the importance of private data, as investors lacked key official indicators to gauge the strength of the American economy. The record US shutdown may end as soon as Wednesday after the Senate passed a temporary funding bill, buoying stocks as investors brace for a flood of delayed data once agencies reopen.
“The biggest near-term catalyst would be a reopening of the government, which would buttress current-quarter GDP forecasts but also may release more liquidity into the market, which typically is supportive of stocks,” said the JPMorgan Market Intelligence team led by Andrew Tyler.
Treasuries advanced across the curve after private-sector data signalled a cooling US labour market and bolstered bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut.
The yield on the 10-year fell four basis points to 4.08% after employment figures from ADP Research signalled US companies shed 11,250 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ended Oct. 25. Money markets also added to bets on Fed rate cuts, pricing roughly a 70% chance of a reduction next month, according to swaps tied to policy-meeting dates. A gauge of the dollar was flat after five days of losses, while gold gained.
ADP figures suggested the labour market slowed in the second half of October, compared with earlier in the month. ADP’s most recent monthly report, released last week, showed private-sector payrolls increased 42,000 in October after declining in the prior two months.
The data comes after an array of companies flagged plans to reduce headcount in recent weeks. A report from outplacement firm Challenger, Grey & Christmas Inc. showed employers announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades, spurring anxiety about the health of the labour market.
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