BSE shares in focus post Q3 results — Analysts raise target price, see up to 26% upside

Shares of BSE Ltd. are in focus on Tuesday, February 10, as analysts increased their target prices post the exchange's third quarter earnings, projecting an upside of up to 26% from its previous close.

BSE's internals remained strong and it witnessed nearly a 30% increase in turnover sequentially. Its average daily notional turnover increased 28% to ₹210 lakh crore, while its average daily premium turnover was up 29.7% at ₹19,459 crore.

Its headline numbers were largely higher than estimates.  The exchange's transaction charges lifted the revenue, which was up 20% sequentially.

BSE's operating income increased 16% to ₹1,244 crore sequentially from ₹1,068 crore. Its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased 13% to ₹778 crore from ₹691 crore in the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, higher regulatory contribution dragged its margin. BSE's regulatory contribution was up 28% sequentially at ₹187 crore from ₹147 crore. Its margin contracted to 62.5% from 64.7% in the preceding quarter.

Brokerages

Brokerages UBS, Jefferies and Nuvama also raised their price targets on the stock post its earnings.

UBS 

UBS has a 'buy' rating on BSE and has raised its price target to ₹3,650 per share.

It said BSE's third quarter market share gain continues and its revenue remained strong. The exchange's profit missed forecasts on higher costs, UBS said. The premium average daily turnover was robust.

UBS said BSE management is optimistic that the rise in STT rates will have minimal impact on options volumes, consistent with past trends, though some effect on futures volumes is expected. It said efforts are underway to improve liquidity in longer-dated contracts by boosting market participation.

Additionally, the management foresees eventual market recognition of smart order routing's benefits for enhanced price discovery, despite current adoption challenges, even with common contract note already implemented, UBS added.

Jefferies

Jefferies has a 'hold' rating on BSE but has raised its target price to ₹3,050 apiece.

It said BSE's profit after tax (PAT) of ₹610 crore was 5% higher than the analyst's estimates, led by 5% higher top-line, tad better opex excluding core SGF and adjusted for one-off labour code change.

It said it has increased FY26-28 earnings per share estimates by 4-7%, pulling forward Sensex share gains.

While market share gains remain a key short-term growth driver, lack of clarity on new products could become a growth challenge post FY29 estimates, Jefferies said.

Nuvama

Nuvama has a 'buy' rating on the stock and has raised its target price to ₹3,760 apiece.

It said despite the expiry swap in September 2025, BSE delivered third quarter index options ADPTV market share of 29.4%, driving revenue up 60.8% from the previous year and 16.4% sequentially.

It said operating leverage drove EBITDA margins up 443 basis points from the previous year to 60.8%, resulting in EBITDA growth of 73.5% from the last year and 11.1% from the previous quarter.

Strong other income was supported by adjusted profit after tax (APAT) at ₹600 crore, Nuvama said.

The January 2026 index option ADPTV surged 53.3% from the previous month, driving its market share higher by 292 basis points to 30.2%.

It has increased its earnings estimates for FY26, FY27 and FY28 by 8.2%, 21.9% and 21.1%, respectively.

Of the 16 analysts that have coverage on the BSE stock, 12 have a 'buy' rating and four have a 'hold' rating.

Shares of BSE Ltd. ended the previous session 3.07% up at ₹2,986 apiece. The stock has gained 7% in the past month, 24.6% in the last six months and 59.1% in the past year.

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