NSDL shares may rise 12%, JM Financial says on day of lock-in ending

Shares of National Securities Depository Ltd. (NSDL) will be in focus on Monday, November 3, after brokerage firm JM Financial initiated coverage on the stock with an 'Add' rating and a price target of ₹1,290.

The price target ascribed by JM Financial, implies a potential upside of nearly 12% from Friday's closing levels.

The brokerage wrote in its note that NSDL continues to be the preferred platform for securities settlement in India, consistently handling the majority of demat-based transaction value.

In FY25, NSDL facilitated settlements worth ₹103.2 lakh crore, commanding a 66% market share, compared to 34% for CDSL

The brokerage mentioned that NSDL's core depository business benefits from multiple structural drivers that underpin both revenue growth and profitability. These levers are anchored in account growth, issuer expansion, custody value, and sustained transaction activity.

Beyond its core depository operations, NSDL has evolved into a diversified financial infrastructure platform through subsidiaries NDML (NSDL Database Management) and NPBL (NSDL Payments Bank), which together contributed 56% of consolidated revenue in FY25.

NDML manages 18.8 million KYC records, while NPBL, which accounts for 51% of operating revenue, operates 3 million active accounts and over 3 lakh micro ATMs. The brokerage said this balanced mix of recurring and transaction-linked revenues ensures resilience and long-term growth visibility.

Highlighting the duopoly structure of India's depository industry, JM Financial said firms like NSDL warrant premium valuations, given their strong cash flows and lower volatility relative to stock exchanges.

The brokerage expects NSDL to post revenue, EBITDA, and profit CAGR of 11%, 18%, and 15%, respectively, over FY25-28E.

Separately, NSDL's three-month shareholder lock-in period

ends today, releasing about 75 lakh shares, which is equivalent to 4% of the company's outstanding equity, according to Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research.

NSDL shares settled 1.2% lower on Friday at ₹1,158.55. The stock is down about 20% from its post-listing high of ₹1,425, which it had surged to in just a few days of listing, even as it remains well above its IPO price of ₹800.