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What is the story about?
Gold and silver prices in India declined in early trade on March 30, tracking weakness in global markets, even as the rupee showed marginal strength against the US dollar following steps by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to curb speculative positions.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures fell 1.07% to ₹1.45 lakh per 10 grams (24-carat), while silver declined 0.77% to ₹2.25 lakh per kilogram.
Both metals, however, recovered part of their losses later in the session.
Gold pared its decline to trade at ₹1.46 lakh per 10 grams, down 0.26%, while silver edged higher by 0.18% to ₹2.28 lakh per kilogram.
The initial weakness came despite a softer US dollar, which typically supports bullion by making it cheaper for holders of other currencies. Market participants pointed to the RBI’s move to restrict onshore long positions in the dollar as a factor supporting the rupee, which in turn capped gains in domestic bullion prices.
Globally, gold remained volatile in a narrow range. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,488.46 per ounce, after swinging between a fall of over 1% and marginal gains earlier in the session. US gold futures for April delivery also slipped 0.1% to $4,518.30 per ounce.
Analysts said heightened geopolitical tensions and surging crude oil prices continue to drive market uncertainty. Brent crude climbed above $115 per barrel after renewed conflict in West Asia, raising concerns over inflation and dampening expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.
“Given the rapid flow of headline news, it’s easiest to expect volatility,” Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, said, noting that recent price action could indicate a potential reversal but requires confirmation.
Expectations of prolonged higher interest rates have weighed on gold, a non-yielding asset, even as inflation concerns typically support its appeal as a hedge. Traders now see limited chances of a US rate cut this year, compared to earlier expectations of two reductions.
Gold has fallen more than 15% so far this month, marking its steepest monthly decline since October 2008, pressured by a stronger dollar and shifting rate expectations. The US currency has gained over 2% since late February amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
Silver, meanwhile, showed relative resilience. Spot silver rose 0.5% to $69.91 per ounce in international markets, supported by tight supply conditions and strong physical demand, particularly from China.
Domestic outlook remains volatile
In the Indian market, analysts expect bullion prices to remain in a corrective phase in the near term, with geopolitical developments in West Asia and key global macroeconomic data driving direction.
Speeches by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers, along with data points such as manufacturing PMI, inflation readings, and US nonfarm payrolls, will be closely tracked by investors.
“Any escalation or de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could drive sharp moves in financial markets,” said Pranav Mer, Vice President – Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services.
Trading volumes may remain subdued in the coming week due to market holidays, including Mahavir Jayanti and Good Friday.
Despite near-term corrections, structural factors continue to support gold prices in India.
According to Piyush Jhunjhunwala, Founder and CEO of Stockify, gold is witnessing a shift from traditional jewellery demand to investment-led buying through digital gold, ETFs and bullion.
He noted that while elevated prices have dampened retail jewellery demand, especially in lower price segments, investment demand is expected to offset the decline.
“Gold now functions more as a strategic financial asset, even as short-term price movements remain highly sensitive to global cues,” he said.
Analysts also highlight that currency movements and inflation trends remain key supports for domestic prices. While global stability may limit sharp rallies, a weaker rupee and persistent inflation could keep gold elevated in the medium term.
-With agencies inputs
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures fell 1.07% to ₹1.45 lakh per 10 grams (24-carat), while silver declined 0.77% to ₹2.25 lakh per kilogram.
Both metals, however, recovered part of their losses later in the session.
Gold pared its decline to trade at ₹1.46 lakh per 10 grams, down 0.26%, while silver edged higher by 0.18% to ₹2.28 lakh per kilogram.
The initial weakness came despite a softer US dollar, which typically supports bullion by making it cheaper for holders of other currencies. Market participants pointed to the RBI’s move to restrict onshore long positions in the dollar as a factor supporting the rupee, which in turn capped gains in domestic bullion prices.
Globally, gold remained volatile in a narrow range. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,488.46 per ounce, after swinging between a fall of over 1% and marginal gains earlier in the session. US gold futures for April delivery also slipped 0.1% to $4,518.30 per ounce.
Analysts said heightened geopolitical tensions and surging crude oil prices continue to drive market uncertainty. Brent crude climbed above $115 per barrel after renewed conflict in West Asia, raising concerns over inflation and dampening expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.
“Given the rapid flow of headline news, it’s easiest to expect volatility,” Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, said, noting that recent price action could indicate a potential reversal but requires confirmation.
Expectations of prolonged higher interest rates have weighed on gold, a non-yielding asset, even as inflation concerns typically support its appeal as a hedge. Traders now see limited chances of a US rate cut this year, compared to earlier expectations of two reductions.
Gold has fallen more than 15% so far this month, marking its steepest monthly decline since October 2008, pressured by a stronger dollar and shifting rate expectations. The US currency has gained over 2% since late February amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
Silver, meanwhile, showed relative resilience. Spot silver rose 0.5% to $69.91 per ounce in international markets, supported by tight supply conditions and strong physical demand, particularly from China.
Domestic outlook remains volatile
In the Indian market, analysts expect bullion prices to remain in a corrective phase in the near term, with geopolitical developments in West Asia and key global macroeconomic data driving direction.
Speeches by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers, along with data points such as manufacturing PMI, inflation readings, and US nonfarm payrolls, will be closely tracked by investors.
“Any escalation or de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could drive sharp moves in financial markets,” said Pranav Mer, Vice President – Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services.
Trading volumes may remain subdued in the coming week due to market holidays, including Mahavir Jayanti and Good Friday.
Despite near-term corrections, structural factors continue to support gold prices in India.
According to Piyush Jhunjhunwala, Founder and CEO of Stockify, gold is witnessing a shift from traditional jewellery demand to investment-led buying through digital gold, ETFs and bullion.
He noted that while elevated prices have dampened retail jewellery demand, especially in lower price segments, investment demand is expected to offset the decline.
“Gold now functions more as a strategic financial asset, even as short-term price movements remain highly sensitive to global cues,” he said.
Analysts also highlight that currency movements and inflation trends remain key supports for domestic prices. While global stability may limit sharp rallies, a weaker rupee and persistent inflation could keep gold elevated in the medium term.
-With agencies inputs
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