Lodha stock may jump 77%, Motilal Oswal projects but with key risks

Brokerage firm Motilal Oswal has reiterated its 'Buy' rating on Macrotech Developers Ltd., also known as Lodha, with a price target of ₹1,888 per share. The target implies a potential upside of 77% from current levels.

Motilal Oswal expects Lodha's presales to grow at a 22% CAGR, backed by healthy collections and comfortable leverage, with net debt projected at 0.25x by the end of H1FY26. This is despite aggressive business development additions worth ₹25,000 crore.

Pune continues to scale up well and is expected to deliver 40% year-on-year growth in sales.

The company has completed its pilot phase in Bengaluru and has entered the growth phase, with Motilal Oswal expecting Lodha to achieve a 12% market share in the city by the end of the decade.

Lodha is also in the process of initiating a pilot project in the NCR and is expanding its commercial and industrial portfolio to drive rental growth. Meanwhile, Palava is set to scale up sales by 20% on year, aided by the expected completion of the Airoli Katai tunnel by the end of FY26 and other ongoing infrastructure developments.

According to the brokerage, the company's steady pace of project acquisitions improves long term visibility, while disciplined and timely execution ensures that growth momentum translates into sustained performance.

Motilal Oswal believes this consistent operational performance is likely to continue as Lodha capitalises on industry consolidation and growth opportunities.

Key risks, as per the brokerage, include a slowdown in residential absorption, delays in monetising upcoming projects, and slower than expected convergence of business development additions.

Shares of Macrotech Developers are currently trading flat at ₹1,064.80. The stock has declined 22% so far in 2025.