Asian equities hit record, oil fluctuates on Venezuela

Asian shares surged to a record as investor extended their bets on technology stocks. Oil rates fluctuated and precious metals jumped.

MSCI's Asian stock index increased 0.7% during open after a widely watched technology gauge hit a record high. Equity index futures for the US also increased as trading started in Asia post the US ousted Venezuela's president.

Gold and silver extended gains, while Brent crude climbed 0.3%. Earlier, it slid as much as 1.2% to $60 a barrel after the weekend capture of Nicolás Maduro, muddying the outlook for supply from the OPEC member. Treasuries were little changed and Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar edged higher.

The Venezuela news comes against a broadly positive backdrop in Asian markets, which are starting 2026 with their strongest advance since 2012. Wall Street strategists are generally optimistic about stocks this year, but escalating tensions stand to test the resilience of global equities after their best annual return since 2017.

“Geopolitical noise fades quickly,” said Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “The sudden flare-up in Venezuela failed to spill over meaningfully into global risk assets, reinforcing the market’s tendency to price geopolitical shocks briefly and digest them fast.”

Traders are refocusing on rate paths, liquidity conditions, and fundamental divergence, rather than headline risk, she said.

Early signals suggest that the global oil market will largely take the move in its stride.

Venezuela’s oil infrastructure wasn’t affected after a series of US attacks in Caracas and other states, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Key facilities such as Jose port, the Amuay refinery and oil areas in the Orinoco Belt are still operational, the people said.

“The capture of Maduro can create a short-term risk-off sentiment in Asian markets, mainly through higher oil prices and a rise in geopolitical risk premium,” said Jung In Yun, chief executive officer at Fibonacci Asset Management Global in Singapore. “We don’t think the situation will escalate into a sustained oil shock, and this should be a short-lived sentiment drag.”

Investors will also be keeping an eye on US Treasury yields, which can weigh on stocks if they rise too quickly. The 10-year yield was up two basis points to 4.19% at the close on Friday, while the 30-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.87% after touching its highest level since September.

The question is whether events in Venezuela add to the appeal of US debt by fanning risk or diminish demand for them by increasing concerns over inflation or US fiscal policy.

“From a market perspective, we would be careful not to over-trade” when the market opens on Monday, Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, wrote in a note. “A major use of land troops is highly unlikely. As such, fiscal outlays are not going to be affected and bond yields should not rise.”

Maduro’s arrest assures a “lively start” to Washington’s policies as a factor in macro risk analysis, said Kim Wallace of 22V Research, in a note dated Sunday. The more pertinent question is whether 2026 policy upheaval presents tangible risks or opportunities to market participants, or a temporary risk flare soon to fade.

Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson said modest additional interest-rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026, but conditioned that outcome on a benign outlook for the economy.

US stock investors opened 2026 on cautious footing Friday, lifting benchmarks modestly on the year’s first trading day. Shares in Asia had their best start to a new year since 2012, helped by technology companies.

“Equities will likely look through the headlines even if volatility rises, with rates and US specific catalysts ultimately driving market direction in 2026,” said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer of Roundhill Investments.

Key economic data will also shape the week ahead. In addition to the December jobs report, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue on Wednesday figures for November job openings, quits and layoffs. The Institute for Supply Management’s December surveys of manufacturers and service providers will also offer clues about employment in those industries.

At week’s end, the US government will report on October housing starts, while the University of Michigan issues its preliminary January consumer sentiment index.

With inputs from Bloomberg