Why Axis Mutual Fund is cautiously optimistic on gold and silver for 2026

Gold and silver have emerged as the standout assets of 2025, driven by a mix of monetary-policy shifts, geopolitical tensions and structural demand, according to a new outlook report from Axis Mutual Fund.

Gold up ~60% in 2025 so far

As per the Axis MF report, gold has rallied nearly 60% so far this year, supported by a weaker US dollar, expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and persistent safe-haven buying.

The US Dollar Index has fallen about 8% in 2025, weighed down by concerns around the US debt load, now at 124% of GDP.

Uncertainty around the appointment of the next Fed Chair and its potential implications for policy has added to volatility—typically favourable for gold. The report notes that slowing global growth, sticky inflation and Japan’s bond-market turbulence also reinforced the metal’s role as a store of value.

Investment flows have remained strong, with gold ETF assets hitting a record ~$470 billion by Q3. Bars and coins demand held above 300 tonnes for three consecutive quarters. Central banks continued to accumulate the metal, with gold’s share in their reserves surpassing US Treasuries for the first time in nearly 30 years.

Silver doubles as industrial demand surges

Silver has been an even stronger performer, rising nearly 100% so far in 2025.

Axis MF attributes the surge to both safe-haven appetite and industrial demand from solar energy, electric vehicles and semiconductors—segments that together account for more than half of global silver consumption.

Inflows into silver-backed ETFs and broader momentum in base metals, especially copper, added to the rally. Supply remained tight, with 2025 marking the fifth straight year of a global market deficit, as most silver is produced as a by-product of lead, zinc and copper mining.

What to watch in 2026?

Axis MF highlights that while near-term support for both metals remains intact, 2026 could bring bouts of volatility.

For gold, higher real yields, a stronger dollar, easing inflation, profit-taking and weaker ETF flows may cap gains. For silver, stretched valuations, potential industrial substitution, any slowdown in copper prices and rotation into other commodities could create pressure.

The fund house maintains a positive near-term bias on gold given the global uncertainty backdrop and continued central-bank buying. Silver’s outlook remains “constructive,” supported by structural demand, though the report warns of possible corrections as investors reassess valuations.

Both metals, it adds, continue to hold relevance as portfolio diversifiers heading into 2026.