Two-thirds of ONGC analysts say 'buy' despite Q4 results miss; check price targets

Shares of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (ONGC)

will be in focus on Wednesday, May 27, after the state-run energy major reported a weak operational performance for the fourth quarter of FY26, impacted by lower production and higher exploration-related costs.

ONGC’s standalone revenue rose 13.9% sequentially to ₹35,928 crore during the March quarter.

However, profitability remained under pressure, with EBITDA declining 17.1% quarter-on-quarter to ₹12,666 crore. Operating margin also narrowed sharply to 35.3% from 48.4% in the previous quarter.

Net profit for the quarter fell 20.6% sequentially to ₹6,650 crore compared to ₹8,372 crore in the December quarter.

Crude oil production declined 6% year-on-year and 3% sequentially to 4.95 million metric tonnes, while gas production fell 3% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter to 4.88 BCM.

Brokerages stance on ONGC

CLSA retained its ‘Buy’ rating on ONGC with a target price of ₹405.

The brokerage said ONGC’s Q4 EBITDA came in 6% below expectations mainly due to weaker gas sales, while higher exploration write-offs further impacted profitability.

CLSA also said that gains from the technical service contract with BP for the Mumbai High fields have already started reflecting in operations.

The brokerage highlighted ONGC management’s commentary that the Daman Upside project is expected to increase domestic gas production by 9% going forward. ONGC also announced a final dividend of ₹1 per share.

Jefferies also maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a price target of ₹360.

The brokerage said standalone EBITDA missed estimates due to higher operating expenditure and dry well write-offs, although consolidated earnings were supported by a strong performance from Hindustan Petroleum Corporation.

Of the 31 analysts that have coverage on ONGC, 20 of them have a 'Buy' rating, five recommends 'Hold', while six others have a 'Sell' recommendation on the stock.

ONGC shares ended 0.84% higher at ₹287.35 on Tuesday. The stock has gained more than 20% so far in 2026.