Indian markets may rebound in case of this 'turning point', Amundi's research arm says

The research arm of Amundi SA, which has an investment of over $50 billion in India's capital markets, believes that Indian equities are primed for a rebound after a steep sell-off through the year has made it one of the worst performing markets globally in 2026.

Amundi Investment Institute, the research arm believes that the end of the Iran war may prove to be a turning point as India relies a lot on its crude imports. According to Alessia Berardi, the head of global macroeconomics and emerging markets strategy at the firm, Indian markets underperformed this year due to higher oil prices and persistent foreign outflows.

A combination of its joint venture with ASBI Funds Management, and among its direct holdings in various Indian listed entities, Amundi's total exposure in the Indian capital markets stands close to $57 billion.

In an interview to Bloomberg Berardi said that she is quite positive on a turnaround for Indian markets, citing improving private investment and other economic data.

The Nifty 50 index is down 15% so far this year, weighed down by outflows of over $30 billion, higher oil prices, and the currency that has slumped to record low levels.

Berardi called the West Asia conflict the "tipping point" for many global investors, as the war has pressured oil-dependent economies such as India, and the resultant surge in crude oil prices has also driven inflation higher, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates for the first time in three years.

Among her top picks, Berardi said that she is bullish on India's defence and manufacturing sector. The Nifty India defence index has outperformed the benchmark index so far this year, with gains of 16%.

After the 7.8% growth figure reported during the first quarter of the current financial year, the RBI raised its full year growth forecast to 7.1% from 6.7% earlier.

"If you look at the equity market, you have this pessimistic perception on India, but I’m more in the other camp right now,” Berardi said. “I’m seeing the seeds of a good economic performance," she told Bloomberg in the interview.