HPCL shares fall up to 3% as fuel and LPG retailing losses lead to ₹11,500 crore net loss in Q1

Shares of Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd. declined up to 3% on Thursday, July 23, after fuel and LPG retailing losses impacted its first quarter earnings.

The company reported a loss of over ₹11,000 crore. However, the same was lower than estimates, which stood at ₹13,680 crore.

Its revenue growth remained healthy as it increased by 23% sequentially.

HPCL, the state-run fuel refiner, reported an earnings before interest, taxes depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) loss of ₹15,500 crore compared to an EBITDA of ₹9,400 in the previous quarter.

The cumulative negative buffer on LPG, as of June, is at ₹16,406 crore.

The gross refining margin (GRM) was at $23.8 per barrel, 2% above estimates.

A Divided House

Brokerages Jefferies and Nomura have "underperform" and "neutral" ratings on the stock, while Macquarie maintained its "outperform" rating on the stock.

Jefferies Is Bearish On HPCL

The brokerage has an "underperform" rating on HPCL, and a price target of ₹325 per share. This indicates a downside of 17.6% from its previous close of ₹394.35 apiece.

It said the company's loss was lower than the brokerage's estimate. Higher refining margins driven by inventory gains cushioned some of those losses.

The brokerage has also warned that HPCL may report a net loss for the full financial year as well with spot marketing margins back in the red after the rally in crude oil prices.

Another reason why Jefferies is bearish on HPCL is the fact that it trades at a premium to its peer BPCL, despite reporting a net loss triple of the latter.

Nomura

The brokerage has a "neutral" rating on HPCL with a target price of ₹440 per share, indicating an upside of 11.6% from the previous close.

It said the HPCL's first quarter EBITDA loss of ₹16,100 crore was driven by significant fuel and LPG retailing losses.

The GRM of $23.8 per barrel came in 2% above estimates of $23.3 per barrel, increasing from $14.3 per barrel in the fourth quarter of FY26.

Nomura said crude throughput increased 1% sequentially to 6.5 million tonne.

The adjusted net loss of ₹11,500 was better than estimates for a ₹12,200 crore loss due to higher tax losses.

It added that HPCL booked an LPG under-recovery of ₹5,600 crore in the first quarter, compared to ₹1,400 crore sequentially, with a cumulative net negative buffer of ₹6,400 as of June 2026-end.

The LPG compensation loss of ₹1,980 crore was received in the June quarter toward under-recoveries made in FY25, being paid in 12 eqaul monthly instalments, Nomura added.

Stock reaction

Of the 33 analysts who have coverage on HPCL, 15 have a "buy" rating, seven have a "hold" rating and 11 have a "sell" rating.

Shares of HPCL are trading 2.6% lower on Thursday after the results at ₹385.4. The stock is down 23% so far this year.

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