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JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said India and the US should work towards completing their trade agreement, stressing that consistency in rules, laws and capital treatment is essential for businesses. Speaking to CNBC-TV18 at the JPMorgan India Conference 2026, Dimon said the deal had stalled amid several challenges and urged both governments to resume discussions.
Dimon, who has been visiting India since 2005, highlighted JPMorgan's expansion in the country, noting that its employee base has grown from around 6,000 to 60,000. He said the bank would continue investing in India and supporting Indian companies expanding globally.
On the Russia-Ukraine war, Dimon said the conflict had become more severe and could continue for another five years. He also called for a resolution to the Iran situation without allowing the country to acquire nuclear weapons, while cautioning against measures that could disrupt global oil markets or penalise India.
Discussing inflation and interest rates, Dimon said yields could remain higher for longer due to strong demand for capital driven by government borrowing, infrastructure spending, AI investments and remilitarisation. He maintained that the US Federal Reserve should retain its 2% inflation target.
On artificial intelligence, Dimon said hyperscaler spending could rise from around $700 billion in 2026 to $1.1 trillion in 2027. While he expects AI to deliver productivity gains over time, he cautioned that not all companies involved in the technology boom would succeed.
Dimon also highlighted the need for businesses to prepare for volatility across financial markets and said JPMorgan would continue expanding its India operations. He expects India's economy to be significantly larger over the next decade, with the bank increasing its coverage of Indian companies.
This is the verbatim transcript of the interview.
Q: What's the big excitement this time around at the J.P. Morgan India Conference 2026? What's happening? Tell us a little bit about your visit this time.
Jamie Dimon: I come here just about every year, sometimes twice a year, and if you look behind me, this is our 11th conference. I've been coming here since 2005. When I first got here, I think we had 6,000 employees. We have 60,000 employees across lots of technical areas and investment banking. We cover 200 companies in research, and the research covers the world. We can have 300 or 400 clients we cover here, and then 600 multinationals coming here. We bank Indian companies when they go around the world. We've seen the country grow, we've grown with it, and it's been a great experience. And, you know, you have one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. So, you know, we've been a consistent investor in India and be part of helping build your country.
Q: And I think it's been very visible, your growth here over the years, Jamie. So, company-to-company relations, of course, are very, very strong, and a lot is happening. What about government-to-government relations? I mean, that, I think, has gone a little sour. We sat right here last year in September, and I think you said India and America should be best friends. I mean, India can stay non-aligned, but both should try to be each other's best friends. That's not exactly panned out that way, has it?
Jamie Dimon: It's unclear. I know what you're talking about, so I think you could be non-aligned. That may be harder and harder in the world, by the way. But, where you are and who your neighbours are, I think it's reasonable. I think we should reach out our hand, and be friends. I think we're your natural partner. We are the world's biggest democracy, the world's oldest democracy. You know, we have a lot of business that we do together. I think we're probably the largest foreign direct investor, and then probably the largest destination for your companies overseas.
And, yeah, we started the trade agreement about a year ago. But there are a lot of issues that stopped it from ever being finished, and I'd like to see it finished. I think it's important to have stability, things like that. There is even more complexity today, so, if I was urging both governments, I'd say, sit down and try to finish it.
Q: But do you feel we've moved forward? We've moved back? What's your assessment?
Jamie Dimon: Obviously, it hasn't moved forward, right? So, it's sitting there, and, you know, we have so many issues taking place. I hope it's not put on the back burner because I think it's important for India. I think it's important for us. A lot of us do business around the world. Consistency of rules, consistency of law and consistency in how capital is treated are all important.
It's also made much more complex by the Ukraine war, and I understand that.
Q: Absolutely. And you spoke passionately last time that we sat down about it, and, you know, your perspective there. But the sanctions bill, for example, which is sort of the Russia sanctions bill—the new one. I mean, I don't know if you have any thoughts.
Jamie Dimon: Yeah, I think, first of all, those are authorities given to the president that he's allowed to use, but may or may not. I think the president probably doesn't want to disrupt oil markets and other markets, so I understand the concern in America about people buying Russian oil.
I think, in this case, we'd be quite respectful of the fact that, you know, some of that oil is refined and imported. If they don't buy it here, they have to buy it elsewhere. It might not be the right kind of oil for those refineries. And so, I think hopefully America will sit down and understand all those issues and not end up punishing India and the world oil markets while doing what we need to do to combat Russia.
I think we should be doing more to help Ukraine, and there are multiple ways to do that, by the way. This might be one small way. But I'm not sure I think we should be putting any kind of tariffs on the oil. We should have a conversation about it, what to do and how you do it.
Q: Last time we spoke, we were talking about Russia and Ukraine, and you've got another front now, which is the entire situation with Iran, right? I mean, what's your take there, Jamie? I mean, it doesn't look like there's an off-ramp here. Is there one? What's your sense?
Jamie Dimon: In reality, Ukraine's gone worse. Iran has kind of suffered damage, but it's a stalemate. Now, I really don't know. I see all the same things you see. They can go in any direction, and, you know, I would like to see peace on Earth.
I think it's wrong for people to act like Iran isn't a bad actor and that it wasn't imminent. They've been killing people around the world for 47 years. And why the whole free world put up with this is completely beyond me. But I would like to see it resolved without them having nuclear weapons. I do think that's very important for literally the future of mankind, not just the future of oil prices.
Q: But for now, I mean, oil, as a consequence of what's happening, is above $100. It is affecting consumers around the world. I mean, the US, for example, is 70% consumption, right? I mean, GDP is consumption. What's your sense? Do you think we are here for higher-for-longer kind of prices, in your assessment?
Jamie Dimon: I think there are a lot of reasons why prices might be higher for longer. That's one of them. I think inflation has been quite sticky. Obviously, oil prices going up and refined product prices going up makes it a little bit harder.
But it's very hard to compare consumer prices with death and destruction and nuclear war. I think when people say, "Well, it's hurting my gas prices," I'm totally sympathetic to the American public having to pay more. So, I'm hoping it gets resolved. I'm not a political expert. I don't know what's going on the ground. I get reports from people, but I don't know much more than anybody else.
Q: We did speak a little bit about Russia and Ukraine last time. I mean, just mark-to-market your views there. You said it's gotten worse.
Jamie Dimon: Yes, because it's now lasted longer than World War I. You know, you have 500,000 dead. I mean, you see the drone wars taking place. It's been expanded. I think Ukraine has done an unbelievable job protecting its freedoms and the freedoms of the free world.
But, you know, Russia's geared up and has gone into full battle mode. They're attacking, you know, everything in Ukraine now. So, it's gotten uglier. And that happens to wars that go on longer: they get uglier.
And sometimes they drag in other people. So, you know, when you go to Europe—I was just there—there's sabotage, and they're pretty sure it's Russian in France, Italy, Germany and the UK. So, this is not great, and I don't know what's going to happen there. I mean, I think you're going to easily be talking about that for another five years.
Q: We spoke about monetary policy and the fiscal situation. I mean, I think what's happened here with the two conflicts has added to the pressure there. As a result of it, inflation has been sticky, and we've seen rate hikes.
So, I just wanted your thoughts there. By the way, last time we didn't have the new Fed Chair. We were waiting to see who would be the new Fed Chair. We have the new Fed Chair. We've heard what he's said and what he's done. Do you think this is the start of a hiking cycle, Jamie?
Jamie Dimon: First of all, I think the world of Kevin Warsh. I think he's quite bright, and I think he's raising a lot of important issues. I'm not in favour of a task force, but I am in favour of raising issues and saying, "Can we do a better job than we did before?"
I don't think what you're seeing is just because of war. I think you have huge demand for capital. So, usually, rates relate to inflation and demand for capital. You know, there were a lot of arguments made years ago that there was a savings glut and, therefore, lower for longer.
Now, you can look at capital demands from both sides, with sovereign debt being a big part of it—all sovereigns, not just the United States, but the rest of the world. These are huge numbers, and it's not just AI. It's capex, infrastructure and remilitarisation.
So, you have more demand for capital, and those things may very well be raising rates. In addition, you know, maybe there's some inflation and some other stuff, but that could have happened anyway. So, the central bank simply has to deal with it.
Q: Do you think the market is pricing in a lot more than what will actually come to pass in terms of rate hikes?
Jamie Dimon: Well, the market is—
Q: I'm saying bond markets, for example, have already reacted, right? I mean, bond yields are already higher. Market interest rates.
Jamie Dimon: Well, I think I was here last year. The 10-year bond yield was probably 4%; now it's 5%. And I think inflation has turned out to be stickier than people thought.
Q: You made that point last time as well.
Jamie Dimon: Yeah, and I think that's still true going forward. And I think there are a lot of things in inflation that, you know, of course, you're data-dependent on.
I mean, can you imagine the Fed saying, "I don't care about data. We're going to do whatever we feel like"? But I always say, what is data? Is data today's data or monthly data?
The data itself is not good because, if you look at it and actually analyse it, you say, "I wouldn't rely on those adjustments and how they come up with them." Is it the past six months? And what about data that we kind of know about, but it's in the future?
Remilitarisation, infrastructure spending, AI spending and ongoing government deficits will affect inflation too. So, part of that inflation number may be the die's already been cast. It isn't about what the Fed does next or the next rate hike. And, of course, they have to react to what they see.
So, we'll see. I'm hoping that inflation stays here and starts to come down. I don't bet on that. I think there's a chance it won't, and it may even go up a little bit.
Q: So, maybe that 2% number is perhaps not the right number. Does it have to be higher?
Jamie Dimon: Oh, no. I think they should stick to 2%.
I think inflation is a long-term problem for countries. I think it's wrong to change it now. Maybe after it goes through these task forces, they'll change it, but it should be a very thoughtful thing, and maybe less than 2%. I mean, there are governments that maintained 1% inflation for a long period.
Q: Maybe AI is going to do that—I mean, deflation and productivity increases, etc.
Jamie Dimon: That probably will be, but not next year.
Q: Just to complete that loop, are we in that era—which I think didn't start now, but maybe started a couple of years back—where rates around the world, in developed markets, are moving higher? I mean, we've seen what's happening with bond yields around the world: Japan, Germany, Europe, all over, right? Is the trajectory higher as far as bond yields across the board?
Jamie Dimon: I think it could be, yeah. It could be higher for longer. Yes, I think there's a good possibility that's true.
But I don't bet on these things. I'm not a hedge fund. I don't bet on these things.
Q: I'm just asking for your view.
Jamie Dimon: No, because I don't have a view other than probabilities and possibilities. Because I don't think you can say, "This is what I think." But I think the odds of yields going higher are greater than other people think.
And I tell clients they should be prepared in any economy for volatility in everything: oil prices, cheese prices, wage prices and healthcare prices. They all have volatility. But credit and interest rates are a big part of that, and obviously, for banks, they're one of the biggest parts of that.
Q: Do you have a view, Jamie, on the US midterm elections, which are six weeks from now? All this is going to feed through, right? I mean, I know, as you said, it's tough to put loss of human lives, interest rates and the price of gas on the same level. But it is what it is for now. What's your sense?
Jamie Dimon: So, I look at Polymarket and Kalshi, and there are a lot of professionals in those markets, by the way. And, as you should know, I read that only 1% of people make money, so those professionals are doing a pretty good job taking money from the other 99%.
But Kalshi would have the House at 80% or 75%, and the Senate—I don't know if it's split or something like that. You know, sometimes that may change. I mean, in elections, you'd be shocked by what happens in the last few weeks or something like that.
And sometimes divided government works better for people. They have to meet in the middle and try to solve some issues. I'm hoping, if that happens, that's what the president does with Congress. Let's resolve some big, thorny issues that, if we resolve them, would be good for growth and inflation.
I'll put one down: immigration. He fixed border control, which I think all countries want. Now you have that. Fix DACA. DACA stays. Merit-based path to citizenship for law-abiding undocumented immigrants, which most Americans would agree with because the immigrants they know, they like. It's the ones they don't know that they're worried about.
Most immigrants who came to the United States want to be American. You know, a more merit-based system and proper asylum-based processes. We need seasonal workers, so it would actually be deflationary and add to growth.
So, you know, something like that. Maybe we have failed to come together on that for years. But if you survey Republicans and Democrats, they want to get that done—kind of what I just said. There are a million other details to it.
Q: Do you think it's going to be a split election?
Jamie Dimon: It looks like it.
Q: We've got that AI capex, and I think we spoke about this last time around as well. If anything, it's only accelerated. I mean, stock markets, of course, see these pullbacks once in a while. But directionally, what we've heard post-quarterly numbers as well from large companies is that they're spending more and more. They will continue to spend more next year compared to what they did this year. What's your sense, Jamie? I think you said it's good. Maybe, like in all booms, there will be some who don't make it. Is that the view still?
Jamie Dimon: Yeah. I mean, people remember we have the government deficit, which is stimulus, and AI is not direct stimulus. But it went from $300 billion last year for the whole hyperscaler ecosystem to around $700 billion this year, maybe $1.1 trillion next year.
That's like a 1% increase in GDP each year. And obviously, it may add a little bit to inflation because you're hiring people, building factories, buying equipment and copper wires, and building power plants and all that.
But it is an unbelievable technology, so, down the road, it could very well enhance deflationary factors out there. And it looks like it's going to continue.
But absolutely, you can't look at an ecosystem like that and declare all the winners and losers. So, while the whole thing may pay off, you can't say, "Well, there's 100 people involved in this. It's going to be that one, that one and that one."
Because, you know, in most expansions—if you look at the expansion of railroads or cars—the only real exception is electric vehicles, because that was heavily regulated and subsidised, not subsidised by the government.
But the internet might be a good example, where there were a lot of names you knew about that didn't make it, and a lot of names you didn't know about that were home runs.
So, you may have new LLM providers, new types of chips and new types of technologies. I'm talking about over five or 10 years; I'm not talking about next year.
Q: The ROI question, Jamie. Do you worry about that? I mean, what are you getting for all that you're putting in? Enterprise adoption is what it comes down to. I'm talking about overall, essentially—the capex that's going in.
Jamie Dimon: I think companies, when they do things, will be looking at the benefits they get. It's not just ROI; sometimes it's just table stakes.
If it really enhances customer experience, you may not be able to calculate ROI, but you want a happy customer.
And, yeah, I think there will be an ROI because companies are going to be looking at how much they're paying, what the benefit is, how it works and whether it's enhancing their businesses.
And those things will change too with the cost of a token - I saw a software company the other day that claims it can look at your data, your usage and all the questions you ask, and then send the question or the calculation to the one you need—the best, fastest and cheapest, as opposed to the most expensive.
Now, right now, we have a lot of examples of companies using the most expensive systems to answer very simple questions. And, obviously, you can manage that over time.
Q: But you don't think it's going anywhere close to causing a market accident in that sense, Jamie? Or do you think it may, but nothing dramatic?
Jamie Dimon: No. There may be a market correction. That might be part of it, but I'm not sure that's the cause of it.
Q: China, Jamie. There were reports suggesting that you're going to be in the White House when President Trump and President Xi meet this Thursday. I mean, what should we expect? It's something you've spoken about earlier as well in terms of the relations between both countries.
Jamie Dimon: Well, they're both talking about making progress. Actually, Secretary Bessent came out the other day and said that we're making progress.
I think of broader trade, things which shouldn't be tariffed, raising real issues and talking about AI. Think of security around AI. I think this is what they should do. Fully engage.
You know, we're not going to agree on everything. If they're aiding and abetting Russia in some way, obviously, we're on the different side of that. And so, it's a complex thing, but I hope they'll raise all those issues.
And, you know, this is important for the whole free world.
Q: As you look back—and I was just coming in and talking to somebody—this is 18 years since Lehman, Jamie. It's a long time back. I mean, you are one of the pivotal figures who helped steer the industry through that very, very critical time. Any reflections or learnings from that, as we look at the current situation? Now, there are always these calls for crashes and crises, etc. But it happens, though never when people call for it. I don't know if you have any thoughts.
Jamie Dimon: They rhyme, you know. If you look at all of them, a lot are real estate-related. Sometimes wholesale, sometimes retail, but there's always leverage involved. There's always aggressive accounting involved. And then people become too exuberant, take on too much leverage and think there's no chance that bad things will happen.
So, the way we run our company is important. We look at the full range of outcomes. You know, you can handle higher rates, lower rates, markets down 40%, credit spreads gapping out, the yield curve moving around and credit issues.
We can handle all of that. But the reason to do that is we're not guessing about it. We want to be here through thick or thin for our clients and your country, India.
If we do a bad job, you're going to pull people out and cut expenses, and I never like to be in that position. I'd rather give up profit today to protect against that.
That's the goal. And I do think there are more risks today. I mean, we've talked about a lot of them, and when we lay them all together, it's a long list.
And, you know, I would do anything I can to resolve them and help resolve them. We try to do our little part in that.
Q: Just to wrap it up, what's next for JPMorgan, for you, and, of course, your plans here in India?
Jamie Dimon: India's been, like I said, we've gone—My guess is, if we meet again in 10 years, it'll be 400 companies in research and 2,000 companies being covered. Your economy 10 years from now will probably be three times the size.
And that's the plan. We're going to keep on building and working with your government and the clients here. That's our job, you know, to hopefully make things better for folks.
Dimon, who has been visiting India since 2005, highlighted JPMorgan's expansion in the country, noting that its employee base has grown from around 6,000 to 60,000. He said the bank would continue investing in India and supporting Indian companies expanding globally.
On the Russia-Ukraine war, Dimon said the conflict had become more severe and could continue for another five years. He also called for a resolution to the Iran situation without allowing the country to acquire nuclear weapons, while cautioning against measures that could disrupt global oil markets or penalise India.
Discussing inflation and interest rates, Dimon said yields could remain higher for longer due to strong demand for capital driven by government borrowing, infrastructure spending, AI investments and remilitarisation. He maintained that the US Federal Reserve should retain its 2% inflation target.
On artificial intelligence, Dimon said hyperscaler spending could rise from around $700 billion in 2026 to $1.1 trillion in 2027. While he expects AI to deliver productivity gains over time, he cautioned that not all companies involved in the technology boom would succeed.
Dimon also highlighted the need for businesses to prepare for volatility across financial markets and said JPMorgan would continue expanding its India operations. He expects India's economy to be significantly larger over the next decade, with the bank increasing its coverage of Indian companies.
This is the verbatim transcript of the interview.
Q: What's the big excitement this time around at the J.P. Morgan India Conference 2026? What's happening? Tell us a little bit about your visit this time.
Jamie Dimon: I come here just about every year, sometimes twice a year, and if you look behind me, this is our 11th conference. I've been coming here since 2005. When I first got here, I think we had 6,000 employees. We have 60,000 employees across lots of technical areas and investment banking. We cover 200 companies in research, and the research covers the world. We can have 300 or 400 clients we cover here, and then 600 multinationals coming here. We bank Indian companies when they go around the world. We've seen the country grow, we've grown with it, and it's been a great experience. And, you know, you have one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. So, you know, we've been a consistent investor in India and be part of helping build your country.
Q: And I think it's been very visible, your growth here over the years, Jamie. So, company-to-company relations, of course, are very, very strong, and a lot is happening. What about government-to-government relations? I mean, that, I think, has gone a little sour. We sat right here last year in September, and I think you said India and America should be best friends. I mean, India can stay non-aligned, but both should try to be each other's best friends. That's not exactly panned out that way, has it?
Jamie Dimon: It's unclear. I know what you're talking about, so I think you could be non-aligned. That may be harder and harder in the world, by the way. But, where you are and who your neighbours are, I think it's reasonable. I think we should reach out our hand, and be friends. I think we're your natural partner. We are the world's biggest democracy, the world's oldest democracy. You know, we have a lot of business that we do together. I think we're probably the largest foreign direct investor, and then probably the largest destination for your companies overseas.
And, yeah, we started the trade agreement about a year ago. But there are a lot of issues that stopped it from ever being finished, and I'd like to see it finished. I think it's important to have stability, things like that. There is even more complexity today, so, if I was urging both governments, I'd say, sit down and try to finish it.
Q: But do you feel we've moved forward? We've moved back? What's your assessment?
Jamie Dimon: Obviously, it hasn't moved forward, right? So, it's sitting there, and, you know, we have so many issues taking place. I hope it's not put on the back burner because I think it's important for India. I think it's important for us. A lot of us do business around the world. Consistency of rules, consistency of law and consistency in how capital is treated are all important.
It's also made much more complex by the Ukraine war, and I understand that.
Q: Absolutely. And you spoke passionately last time that we sat down about it, and, you know, your perspective there. But the sanctions bill, for example, which is sort of the Russia sanctions bill—the new one. I mean, I don't know if you have any thoughts.
Jamie Dimon: Yeah, I think, first of all, those are authorities given to the president that he's allowed to use, but may or may not. I think the president probably doesn't want to disrupt oil markets and other markets, so I understand the concern in America about people buying Russian oil.
I think, in this case, we'd be quite respectful of the fact that, you know, some of that oil is refined and imported. If they don't buy it here, they have to buy it elsewhere. It might not be the right kind of oil for those refineries. And so, I think hopefully America will sit down and understand all those issues and not end up punishing India and the world oil markets while doing what we need to do to combat Russia.
I think we should be doing more to help Ukraine, and there are multiple ways to do that, by the way. This might be one small way. But I'm not sure I think we should be putting any kind of tariffs on the oil. We should have a conversation about it, what to do and how you do it.
Q: Last time we spoke, we were talking about Russia and Ukraine, and you've got another front now, which is the entire situation with Iran, right? I mean, what's your take there, Jamie? I mean, it doesn't look like there's an off-ramp here. Is there one? What's your sense?
Jamie Dimon: In reality, Ukraine's gone worse. Iran has kind of suffered damage, but it's a stalemate. Now, I really don't know. I see all the same things you see. They can go in any direction, and, you know, I would like to see peace on Earth.
I think it's wrong for people to act like Iran isn't a bad actor and that it wasn't imminent. They've been killing people around the world for 47 years. And why the whole free world put up with this is completely beyond me. But I would like to see it resolved without them having nuclear weapons. I do think that's very important for literally the future of mankind, not just the future of oil prices.
Q: But for now, I mean, oil, as a consequence of what's happening, is above $100. It is affecting consumers around the world. I mean, the US, for example, is 70% consumption, right? I mean, GDP is consumption. What's your sense? Do you think we are here for higher-for-longer kind of prices, in your assessment?
Jamie Dimon: I think there are a lot of reasons why prices might be higher for longer. That's one of them. I think inflation has been quite sticky. Obviously, oil prices going up and refined product prices going up makes it a little bit harder.
But it's very hard to compare consumer prices with death and destruction and nuclear war. I think when people say, "Well, it's hurting my gas prices," I'm totally sympathetic to the American public having to pay more. So, I'm hoping it gets resolved. I'm not a political expert. I don't know what's going on the ground. I get reports from people, but I don't know much more than anybody else.
Q: We did speak a little bit about Russia and Ukraine last time. I mean, just mark-to-market your views there. You said it's gotten worse.
Jamie Dimon: Yes, because it's now lasted longer than World War I. You know, you have 500,000 dead. I mean, you see the drone wars taking place. It's been expanded. I think Ukraine has done an unbelievable job protecting its freedoms and the freedoms of the free world.
But, you know, Russia's geared up and has gone into full battle mode. They're attacking, you know, everything in Ukraine now. So, it's gotten uglier. And that happens to wars that go on longer: they get uglier.
And sometimes they drag in other people. So, you know, when you go to Europe—I was just there—there's sabotage, and they're pretty sure it's Russian in France, Italy, Germany and the UK. So, this is not great, and I don't know what's going to happen there. I mean, I think you're going to easily be talking about that for another five years.
Q: We spoke about monetary policy and the fiscal situation. I mean, I think what's happened here with the two conflicts has added to the pressure there. As a result of it, inflation has been sticky, and we've seen rate hikes.
So, I just wanted your thoughts there. By the way, last time we didn't have the new Fed Chair. We were waiting to see who would be the new Fed Chair. We have the new Fed Chair. We've heard what he's said and what he's done. Do you think this is the start of a hiking cycle, Jamie?
Jamie Dimon: First of all, I think the world of Kevin Warsh. I think he's quite bright, and I think he's raising a lot of important issues. I'm not in favour of a task force, but I am in favour of raising issues and saying, "Can we do a better job than we did before?"
I don't think what you're seeing is just because of war. I think you have huge demand for capital. So, usually, rates relate to inflation and demand for capital. You know, there were a lot of arguments made years ago that there was a savings glut and, therefore, lower for longer.
Now, you can look at capital demands from both sides, with sovereign debt being a big part of it—all sovereigns, not just the United States, but the rest of the world. These are huge numbers, and it's not just AI. It's capex, infrastructure and remilitarisation.
So, you have more demand for capital, and those things may very well be raising rates. In addition, you know, maybe there's some inflation and some other stuff, but that could have happened anyway. So, the central bank simply has to deal with it.
Q: Do you think the market is pricing in a lot more than what will actually come to pass in terms of rate hikes?
Jamie Dimon: Well, the market is—
Q: I'm saying bond markets, for example, have already reacted, right? I mean, bond yields are already higher. Market interest rates.
Jamie Dimon: Well, I think I was here last year. The 10-year bond yield was probably 4%; now it's 5%. And I think inflation has turned out to be stickier than people thought.
Q: You made that point last time as well.
Jamie Dimon: Yeah, and I think that's still true going forward. And I think there are a lot of things in inflation that, you know, of course, you're data-dependent on.
I mean, can you imagine the Fed saying, "I don't care about data. We're going to do whatever we feel like"? But I always say, what is data? Is data today's data or monthly data?
The data itself is not good because, if you look at it and actually analyse it, you say, "I wouldn't rely on those adjustments and how they come up with them." Is it the past six months? And what about data that we kind of know about, but it's in the future?
Remilitarisation, infrastructure spending, AI spending and ongoing government deficits will affect inflation too. So, part of that inflation number may be the die's already been cast. It isn't about what the Fed does next or the next rate hike. And, of course, they have to react to what they see.
So, we'll see. I'm hoping that inflation stays here and starts to come down. I don't bet on that. I think there's a chance it won't, and it may even go up a little bit.
Q: So, maybe that 2% number is perhaps not the right number. Does it have to be higher?
Jamie Dimon: Oh, no. I think they should stick to 2%.
I think inflation is a long-term problem for countries. I think it's wrong to change it now. Maybe after it goes through these task forces, they'll change it, but it should be a very thoughtful thing, and maybe less than 2%. I mean, there are governments that maintained 1% inflation for a long period.
Q: Maybe AI is going to do that—I mean, deflation and productivity increases, etc.
Jamie Dimon: That probably will be, but not next year.
Q: Just to complete that loop, are we in that era—which I think didn't start now, but maybe started a couple of years back—where rates around the world, in developed markets, are moving higher? I mean, we've seen what's happening with bond yields around the world: Japan, Germany, Europe, all over, right? Is the trajectory higher as far as bond yields across the board?
Jamie Dimon: I think it could be, yeah. It could be higher for longer. Yes, I think there's a good possibility that's true.
But I don't bet on these things. I'm not a hedge fund. I don't bet on these things.
Q: I'm just asking for your view.
Jamie Dimon: No, because I don't have a view other than probabilities and possibilities. Because I don't think you can say, "This is what I think." But I think the odds of yields going higher are greater than other people think.
And I tell clients they should be prepared in any economy for volatility in everything: oil prices, cheese prices, wage prices and healthcare prices. They all have volatility. But credit and interest rates are a big part of that, and obviously, for banks, they're one of the biggest parts of that.
Q: Do you have a view, Jamie, on the US midterm elections, which are six weeks from now? All this is going to feed through, right? I mean, I know, as you said, it's tough to put loss of human lives, interest rates and the price of gas on the same level. But it is what it is for now. What's your sense?
Jamie Dimon: So, I look at Polymarket and Kalshi, and there are a lot of professionals in those markets, by the way. And, as you should know, I read that only 1% of people make money, so those professionals are doing a pretty good job taking money from the other 99%.
But Kalshi would have the House at 80% or 75%, and the Senate—I don't know if it's split or something like that. You know, sometimes that may change. I mean, in elections, you'd be shocked by what happens in the last few weeks or something like that.
And sometimes divided government works better for people. They have to meet in the middle and try to solve some issues. I'm hoping, if that happens, that's what the president does with Congress. Let's resolve some big, thorny issues that, if we resolve them, would be good for growth and inflation.
I'll put one down: immigration. He fixed border control, which I think all countries want. Now you have that. Fix DACA. DACA stays. Merit-based path to citizenship for law-abiding undocumented immigrants, which most Americans would agree with because the immigrants they know, they like. It's the ones they don't know that they're worried about.
Most immigrants who came to the United States want to be American. You know, a more merit-based system and proper asylum-based processes. We need seasonal workers, so it would actually be deflationary and add to growth.
So, you know, something like that. Maybe we have failed to come together on that for years. But if you survey Republicans and Democrats, they want to get that done—kind of what I just said. There are a million other details to it.
Q: Do you think it's going to be a split election?
Jamie Dimon: It looks like it.
Q: We've got that AI capex, and I think we spoke about this last time around as well. If anything, it's only accelerated. I mean, stock markets, of course, see these pullbacks once in a while. But directionally, what we've heard post-quarterly numbers as well from large companies is that they're spending more and more. They will continue to spend more next year compared to what they did this year. What's your sense, Jamie? I think you said it's good. Maybe, like in all booms, there will be some who don't make it. Is that the view still?
Jamie Dimon: Yeah. I mean, people remember we have the government deficit, which is stimulus, and AI is not direct stimulus. But it went from $300 billion last year for the whole hyperscaler ecosystem to around $700 billion this year, maybe $1.1 trillion next year.
That's like a 1% increase in GDP each year. And obviously, it may add a little bit to inflation because you're hiring people, building factories, buying equipment and copper wires, and building power plants and all that.
But it is an unbelievable technology, so, down the road, it could very well enhance deflationary factors out there. And it looks like it's going to continue.
But absolutely, you can't look at an ecosystem like that and declare all the winners and losers. So, while the whole thing may pay off, you can't say, "Well, there's 100 people involved in this. It's going to be that one, that one and that one."
Because, you know, in most expansions—if you look at the expansion of railroads or cars—the only real exception is electric vehicles, because that was heavily regulated and subsidised, not subsidised by the government.
But the internet might be a good example, where there were a lot of names you knew about that didn't make it, and a lot of names you didn't know about that were home runs.
So, you may have new LLM providers, new types of chips and new types of technologies. I'm talking about over five or 10 years; I'm not talking about next year.
Q: The ROI question, Jamie. Do you worry about that? I mean, what are you getting for all that you're putting in? Enterprise adoption is what it comes down to. I'm talking about overall, essentially—the capex that's going in.
Jamie Dimon: I think companies, when they do things, will be looking at the benefits they get. It's not just ROI; sometimes it's just table stakes.
If it really enhances customer experience, you may not be able to calculate ROI, but you want a happy customer.
And, yeah, I think there will be an ROI because companies are going to be looking at how much they're paying, what the benefit is, how it works and whether it's enhancing their businesses.
And those things will change too with the cost of a token - I saw a software company the other day that claims it can look at your data, your usage and all the questions you ask, and then send the question or the calculation to the one you need—the best, fastest and cheapest, as opposed to the most expensive.
Now, right now, we have a lot of examples of companies using the most expensive systems to answer very simple questions. And, obviously, you can manage that over time.
Q: But you don't think it's going anywhere close to causing a market accident in that sense, Jamie? Or do you think it may, but nothing dramatic?
Jamie Dimon: No. There may be a market correction. That might be part of it, but I'm not sure that's the cause of it.
Q: China, Jamie. There were reports suggesting that you're going to be in the White House when President Trump and President Xi meet this Thursday. I mean, what should we expect? It's something you've spoken about earlier as well in terms of the relations between both countries.
Jamie Dimon: Well, they're both talking about making progress. Actually, Secretary Bessent came out the other day and said that we're making progress.
I think of broader trade, things which shouldn't be tariffed, raising real issues and talking about AI. Think of security around AI. I think this is what they should do. Fully engage.
You know, we're not going to agree on everything. If they're aiding and abetting Russia in some way, obviously, we're on the different side of that. And so, it's a complex thing, but I hope they'll raise all those issues.
And, you know, this is important for the whole free world.
Q: As you look back—and I was just coming in and talking to somebody—this is 18 years since Lehman, Jamie. It's a long time back. I mean, you are one of the pivotal figures who helped steer the industry through that very, very critical time. Any reflections or learnings from that, as we look at the current situation? Now, there are always these calls for crashes and crises, etc. But it happens, though never when people call for it. I don't know if you have any thoughts.
Jamie Dimon: They rhyme, you know. If you look at all of them, a lot are real estate-related. Sometimes wholesale, sometimes retail, but there's always leverage involved. There's always aggressive accounting involved. And then people become too exuberant, take on too much leverage and think there's no chance that bad things will happen.
So, the way we run our company is important. We look at the full range of outcomes. You know, you can handle higher rates, lower rates, markets down 40%, credit spreads gapping out, the yield curve moving around and credit issues.
We can handle all of that. But the reason to do that is we're not guessing about it. We want to be here through thick or thin for our clients and your country, India.
If we do a bad job, you're going to pull people out and cut expenses, and I never like to be in that position. I'd rather give up profit today to protect against that.
That's the goal. And I do think there are more risks today. I mean, we've talked about a lot of them, and when we lay them all together, it's a long list.
And, you know, I would do anything I can to resolve them and help resolve them. We try to do our little part in that.
Q: Just to wrap it up, what's next for JPMorgan, for you, and, of course, your plans here in India?
Jamie Dimon: India's been, like I said, we've gone—My guess is, if we meet again in 10 years, it'll be 400 companies in research and 2,000 companies being covered. Your economy 10 years from now will probably be three times the size.
And that's the plan. We're going to keep on building and working with your government and the clients here. That's our job, you know, to hopefully make things better for folks.
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