Stock Pick: This Adani Group stock is a 'consensus buy' among analysts that track it

Shares of Adani Power Ltd. can rise 30% as per brokerage firm Antique's latest note on Tuesday, December 16.

The brokerage has initiated coverage on Adani Power with a "buy" rating and a price target of र187 per share.

Antique in its note said that Adani Power is set for a multi-year earnings upcycle, driven by a 2.3x capacity expansion from 18.15 giga watt (GW) in financial year 2025 (FY25) to 41.9 GW by financial year 2033.

It said the company has transitioned from a stressed thermal IPP into the most efficient private baseload power producer. Also, India's structural power upcycle, which will be supported by a 6% demand compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over financial year 2022-2032 and rising peak needs from EVs, data centres, AI and manufacturing, creates a strong tailwind for coal power, it added.

Antique said Adani Power has a dominant 70% share (12.4GW of 17.7 GW) in the ongoing state-led thermal power purchase agreement (PPA) awards, which highlights it cost and execution advantage.

The company's earnings visibility is strong, with 90% of the operational capacity and 67% of the 41.9 GW portfolio tied under long-term power purchase agreements, it said. New agreements offer higher fixed charges and the fuel security is supported by SHAKTI-linked fuel supply agreements (FSAs), it said.

Antique expects consolidated revenue to grow at 16%, earnings before interest, tax and depreciation (EBITDA) and profit after tax (PAT) to increase at 19% and 17% CAGR, respectively, over financial year 2025-2032.

Adani Power will fund 60% of its र2 lakh crore capex pipeline via internal accruals, enabling steady deleveraging with net debt-to-EBITDA declining to sub-1x by financial year 2032 and the return on equity (RoE) sustaining above 15%, Antique said.

The brokerage has initiated coverage on the stock, valuing it at 15 times its estimated financial year 2028 EBITDA, reflecting its scale-led cost advantage, superior growth visibility and long-dated cash flow runway.

All six analysts who have coverage on the stock have "buy" ratings.

Shares of Adani Power are currently trading 0.2% higher on Tuesday at ₹144.74. The stock is down 5.6% in the last one month, but has risen 40% so far in 2025.

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