Goldman Sachs raises 2026 gold target by 10% to $5,400 per ounce

Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for end-2026 to $5,400 per ounce, up from $4,900 per ounce, citing continued diversification into gold by private-sector investors and emerging market central banks.

In a note, the brokerage said strong buying interest has already lifted gold’s starting point for 2026, and it expects those diversification flows to remain sticky through next year.

Spot gold climbed to a record peak of $4,887.82 per ounce on Wednesday.

The safe-haven metal has gained more than 11% so far in 2026, extending a sharp rally after it surged 64% last year.

Diversification flows drive the upgrade

Goldman said private-sector diversification buyers have used gold to hedge global policy risks, and the firm does not expect those investors to liquidate their positions in 2026.

The brokerage also projected that central banks will buy an average of 60 tonnes of gold in 2026, as emerging market central banks continue shifting reserves toward bullion.

ETFs may add support as rate cuts come into focus

Goldman Sachs said it expects Western ETF holdings to rise as the US Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates by 50 basis points in 2026, a scenario that typically supports non-yielding assets such as gold.

Key risk to the outlook

Goldman flagged that a sharp reduction in perceived risks around the long-run trajectory of global monetary policy could weigh on prices if it triggers liquidation of macro hedges built around policy uncertainty.

-With agencies inputs