Nifty Outlook for June 23: Index looks to sustain above 24,100 ahead of weekly expiry

The Nifty resumed its upward march after a one-session pause, gaining 89 points to close at 24,102 on Monday. The index opened 93 points higher and extended gains to an intraday high of 24,168 during the first half of the session.

However, profit booking in the latter half erased a portion of the gains, with the benchmark retreating nearly 88 points from the day's high before settling higher.

Despite the intraday pullback, the Nifty remained largely range-bound with a positive undertone, continuing to trade above its key moving averages.

Among index heavyweights, Cipla, Tech Mahindra and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories led the gains, while Asian Paints, Titan and Nestle India were among the top losers.

Sectorally, all indices ended in the green except Consumer Durables and FMCG. Media, Pharma and Healthcare stocks outperformed, indicating broad-based participation in the rally.

The broader markets extended their winning streak to a seventh consecutive session. The Nifty Midcap 100 rose 0.34%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 gained 0.60%.

Meanwhile, the rupee weakened by 36 paise to close at 94.68 against the US dollar despite supportive global cues such as softer crude prices, a stable dollar index and an overall risk-on sentiment. Traders attributed the decline to renewed importer demand and bargain buying in the greenback.

Looking ahead, Indian equities are expected to retain a positive bias amid progress in US-Iran negotiations, firm global markets and easing crude oil prices. Ongoing discussions in Switzerland have fuelled hopes of a formal peace framework and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, improving investor sentiment and reducing concerns over energy costs.

Primary market activity is also expected to remain strong, with several IPOs opening for subscription and multiple listings scheduled this week.

Additionally, AMFI's semi-annual market-cap categorisation review could trigger portfolio rebalancing across segments.

Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal said a normal and well-distributed monsoon remains crucial for agricultural output, rural demand and inflation stability, making it an important factor for the market's medium-term outlook.

Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities said the Nifty failed to surpass the previous swing-high resistance at 24,190, which remains a key near-term hurdle. A sustained move above this level could open the door for a rally towards the 200-DEMA, placed around 24,450.

On the downside, the 23,900-24,000 zone is expected to provide immediate support and act as a cushion against any near-term corrective moves, Shah said.

Rupak De of LKP Securities said the broader trend remains positive, although the pace of the upmove could stay gradual. Immediate resistance is placed at 24,200, while a decisive breakout above that level could trigger a rally towards 24,500. Support is seen at 24,000, and a breach below that mark could drag the index towards 23,800.

De added that volatility may remain elevated during Tuesday's weekly expiry session, though the overall trading range is likely to remain relatively narrow.

The Bank Nifty continued to outperform the benchmark indices and ended Monday's session at 57,935, up 0.43%.

The banking index remains comfortably above its key short and long-term moving averages.

Based on the prevailing chart structure, Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities expects Bank Nifty to extend its gains towards 58,500, followed by 59,100 in the near term. On the downside, the 57,500-57,400 zone is likely to provide immediate support.