'Underperformance is surprising', HSBC remarks about this Tata Group stock

Shares of Tata Steel are likely to trade higher on Thursday, January 8, after the company reported a largely positive operating performance for the December quarter, led by strong growth in its Indian business, even as operations in Europe remained under pressure.

On a year-on-year basis, Tata Steel India reported a sharp improvement in volumes. Crude steel production rose 11.4% to 6.34 million tonnes in Q3FY26, compared with 5.69 million tonnes a year ago.

Delivery volumes increased 14% to 6.04 million tonnes from 5.29 million tonnes in the corresponding quarter last year.

In contrast, performance in Europe was mixed. Tata Steel Netherlands reported a 4.5% decline in production at 1.68 million tonnes, while sales volumes fell 8.5% to 1.4 million tonnes on a YoY basis.

Tata Steel UK saw delivery volumes decline 9% to 0.52 million tonnes, with production remaining nil as both blast furnaces have ceased operations.

Tata Steel Thailand delivered a relatively stronger performance. Production rose 19% YoY to 0.31 million tonnes, while delivery volumes increased 3.6% to 0.29 million tonnes.

Brokerage firm HSBC has maintained a 'Buy' rating on Tata Steel with a price target of ₹215.

The brokerage said European steel companies have rallied sharply over the past six months, gaining between 29% and 63%, as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism comes into effect.

HSBC expects European steel prices to rise further and sees upside risks to estimates for Tata Steel Netherlands, adding that Tata Steel's underperformance is surprising given its sizeable European footprint of around 7 million tonnes.

Morgan Stanley also remains constructive on the stock, maintaining an 'Overweight' rating with a price target of ₹200.

The brokerage mentioned strong momentum in the Indian business, with crude steel production rising 11% year on year and sales volumes up 14%.

It saidd that while volumes in the Netherlands and UK were under pressure sequentially, the India operations continue to anchor overall performance.

Tata Steel shares settled 1.42% lower on Wednesday at ₹183.55.