Why gold’s recent fall may be short-lived, explains SAMCO

Gold, which had been sliding over the past few sessions, saw arebound in early trade on Tuesday (Feb 3),

but analysts at SAMCO Securities say the move should be seen as part of a broader consolidation phase rather than a decisive trend change.

After a sharp multi-month rally, gold prices had corrected meaningfully in recent days, triggering concerns among some investors that the bull run was losing steam. However, prices recovered in the morning session on Feb 3, reflecting bargain buying and short-covering after the recent sell-off.

According to Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at SAMCO Securities, the recent decline was more about positioning and profit-booking than a shift in fundamentals.

SAMCO notes that despite the pullback, gold’s long-term price structure remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows still visible on the charts. Key breakout levels have largely held, suggesting that long-term investors continue to step in on dips.

What SAMCO expects next

SAMCO believes gold is likely to move into a time-wise consolidation phase over the coming months rather than resuming a straight-line rally or entering a prolonged downturn.

The brokerage expects gold to trade in a broad range, with resistance near ₹180,779 and support around ₹136,185–₹132,294. Such sideways movement is common after sharp rallies, as it allows excess optimism to cool and market positioning to reset.

SAMCO views this potential range-bound phase as healthy rather than negative, arguing that it could create a stronger base for the next upward move.

Bigger picture remains positive

While short-term volatility is likely to persist, SAMCO maintains that the overall bias for gold remains upward, as long as key supports continue to hold.

The firm points to structural drivers — including central bank buying, ongoing geopolitical risks, and steady physical demand — as factors that continue to underpin gold’s long-term appeal.

In sum, gold may have been falling recently, but Tuesday’s morning rebound and SAMCO’s assessment suggest the broader uptrend is still alive.