Oil in worst monthly run since 2023 with OPEC+, Ukraine in focus

Oil headed for the longest run of monthly losses in more than two years, as traders looked ahead to an OPEC+ meeting this weekend and gauged US-led efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine.

West Texas Intermediate traded near $59 a barrel, narrowly above Wednesday’s close heading into the Thanksgiving break, while Brent settled above $63. The US crude benchmark is on course for a fourth monthly drop in November, the longest such streak since the first quarter of 2023.

OPEC+ nations meet virtually on Sunday and will probably stick with a plan to pause output increases in early 2026, delegates said. With that decision locked in, a key focus may be a long-term review of members’ capacity.

US oil has sunk 18% this year, with prices hurt by expectations for a global glut after OPEC+ restarted capacity, while drillers outside the alliance also added supplies. The market faces a daily surplus of 2.8 million barrels next year, and 2.7 million barrels in 2027, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

On Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that US President Donald Trump’s proposals for ending the war could be the basis for future agreements, while signaling an openness to talks. US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Moscow next week.

An end to the conflict would have significant ramifications for the oil market. Russia is one of the world’s leading producers and its flows are subject to heavy Western sanctions. Any easing of curbs following a deal could unleash restricted supplies to buyers such as China, India and Turkey.

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