PL Asset Management sees stable macros but rising global risks: How to invest amid uncertainty

PL Asset Management, the asset management arm of PL Capital Group, said India’s macroeconomic strength and healthy liquidity conditions have so far helped absorb external shocks, even as global markets react to energy disruptions and shifting interest rate expectations.

The firm said domestic equities have remained relatively steady, supported by institutional inflows and sustained retail participation through SIPs. However, it cautioned that the current stability is dependent on external conditions that remain fluid.

PL Asset Management highlighted that a combination of risks—including higher crude oil prices, currency weakness, slowing global growth, tighter financial conditions, and supply chain disruptions—could collectively weigh on India’s growth trajectory.

It said such a scenario may pressure fiscal balances, inflation trends, and earnings growth.

Geopolitical developments, including tensions in the Middle East and concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, have further added to uncertainty around global oil supply. The firm noted that this channel remains a key sensitivity for India given its import dependence on crude oil.

Growth remains steady, but external variables are shifting

PL Asset Management said India continues to post strong macro numbers, with GDP growth at 7.8% in Q3 FY26 and full-year growth projected at 7.6%, driven by consumption and manufacturing activity.

It added that government-led infrastructure spending and trade agreements could provide medium-term support to investment cycles and export competitiveness.

Inflation remains within the RBI’s comfort range, allowing policy flexibility, while bond yields have edged higher, with the 10-year G-Sec near 6.70% due to global yield movements and supply pressures.

How to invest amid rising macro and market uncertainty

PL Asset Management said the current market environment is shaped by a balance between strong domestic fundamentals and elevated global uncertainty.

It noted that recent corrections have improved valuations, with the Nifty trading below its five-year average, improving the medium-term risk-reward setup. At the same time, near-term direction is expected to remain sensitive to global triggers, particularly oil prices and geopolitical events.

In this backdrop, the firm suggested a selective and risk-aware approach to investing. It indicated a preference for large-cap allocations and factors such as value, quality, and low volatility, which may offer relatively better resilience in volatile phases.

On sector positioning, it pointed to domestically linked and cyclical themes such as industrials, autos, energy, metals, and PSU financials as better placed, while export-oriented sectors like IT may remain exposed to global demand fluctuations.

The firm also said gold continues to serve as a diversification tool in portfolios during periods of macro uncertainty.

Overall, PL Asset Management said investment strategy in the current phase is likely to be driven more by discipline and diversification than broad market beta, with an emphasis on managing risk while selectively participating in equity opportunities.