CDSL or Angel One? Which capital market stocks should investors buy? JPMorgan answers

Brokerage firm JPMorgan has initiated coverage on a whole host of capital market companies in its latest note on Tuesday, June 23, stating that India's capital market story remains fundamentally driven by the SIP-led flows, despite weak equity returns.

The brokerage has highlighted its pecking order for stocks within this basket, in this particular order: Angel One, CAMS, ICICI Prudential AMC, Nippon Life India AMC, HDFC AMC, BSE, Kfin Tech, CDSL and MCX.

Stock	Rating	Target (₹)	Upside / Downside (%)
Angel One	Overweight	420	19
CAMS	Overweight	950	16
ICICI Pru AMC	Overweight	4,090	20
Nippon Life AMC	Overweight	1,360	15
HDFC AMC	Overweight	3,250	21
BSE	Neutral	4,330	7
Kfin Tech	Downgrade To Neutral	980 From 1,200	8
CDSL	Underweight	1,200	-11
MCX	Underweight	2,560	-12

JPMorgan wrote in its note that policy and taxation changes, the removal of indexation, taxation of insurance policy proceeds, and the slab-rate taxation for debt mutual funds improves the relative appeal of equities.

With reference to MCX, JPMorgan noted that a cycle-driven surge took financial year 2026 average daily turnover to ₹64,200 crore, a jump of 138% year-on-year. However, the brokerage sees limited risk to derivative volumes from potential restrictions on retail participation.

The Big Earnings Risk

The durability of earnings will be the big divergence and that will be driven by the business models of these companies, JPMorgan's note said. While exchanges and depositories enjoy stronger pricing power and operating leverage, low-cost retail brokers benefit from scale, amidst rising competition, the brokerage added.

What Are The Key Triggers For Capital Market Stocks?

JPMorgan expects the market to reward persistent market share gains and operating leverage which will improve margins going forward. How regulations shapes derivative volumes will be a key inflection point for this sector going forward.

SIP inflows staying below ₹25,000 crore, adverse regulatory changes resulting in 20% lower ADPTVs or cancellations of weekly expiries and futures / premium turnover of over 15% above assumptions on a sharp rise in volatility are some of the key risks highlighted.

Shares of Angel One are up nearly 50% so far this year, while those of BSE are also up 53% so far. On the flip side, shares of CDSL are down 5% so far in 2026, while those of MCX are up 30% during the same period.