Gold outlook 2026: Axis Securities sees positive momentum but flags macro risks

Gold is set to end 2025 with one of its strongest annual performances in decades, rising more than 60% so far — its best yearly gain since 1979. According to a new outlook by Axis Securities, the metal’s sharp rally has been driven by aggressive central-bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty and policy signals from the US administration that boosted safe-haven demand.

With prices hovering near all-time highs, the report examines whether gold can retain its momentum as 2026 approaches.

What supported gold in 2025

The report notes that US President Donald Trump’s tariff moves and repeated calls for faster US Federal Reserve rate cuts created persistent uncertainty, prompting investors to shift toward bullion. The Fed has already delivered two rate cuts this year, in September and October, and a third is expected in December — a sequence that has kept real yields subdued.

Central-bank buying remained a major driver.

Sovereign purchases crossed 1,180 tonnes last year and are projected to approach 1,000 tonnes in 2025, despite elevated prices. ETF inflows also strengthened the rally, while the ongoing de-dollarisation trend encouraged reserve diversification into gold.

Factors that may lift prices next year

Axis Securities highlights several tailwinds that could extend the rally into 2026:

• Potential for further rate cuts if US policymakers continue easing


• Sustained central-bank accumulation, especially on price dips


• Heavy ETF inflows, which have pushed holdings to new highs


• Geopolitical risks, including tariff uncertainty and regional flashpoints


• Continued de-dollarisation by emerging markets and commodity exporters

The report notes that MCX gold broke decisively above ₹1.01 lakh–₹1.06 lakh per 10 grams this year and recently touched around ₹1.32 lakh per 10 grams, maintaining a strong structural uptrend as long as it holds above ₹1.02 lakh per 10 grams.

Risks that could cap or reverse the rally

Despite the positive setup, the report outlines several headwinds that could pressure bullion in 2026:

• A shift back to hawkish monetary policy if inflation stays sticky


• A sustained recovery in the US dollar


• Softening central-bank demand as diversification stabilises


• Easing geopolitical tensions, reducing safe-haven appetite


• A risk-on surge in equities, crypto or other high-yielding assets


• Weak physical demand from India and China due to high premiums, slower income growth or import curbs

Technical view heading into 2026

The monthly MCX chart shows a firm long-term uptrend, supported by strong volume and sustained buying interest. Key support levels sit at ₹1.02 lakh per 10 grams and ₹95,000 per 10 grams.

The report suggests that any correction is likely to be temporary, with dip-buying still visible. If the broader trend holds, gold may attempt ₹1.40 lakh–₹1.45 lakh per 10 grams by late 2026.

Outlook

Axis Securities says that gold will enter 2026 with favourable momentum but may face a more complex macro landscape. Continued uncertainty, accommodative monetary policy and structural central-bank demand could help the metal scale new highs.

However, a reversal in yields, geopolitical calm or stronger risk-asset performance may cool the rally after an extraordinary year.