Gold may hit $5,000 by end-2026 as softer Fed outlook, India demand support prices: Metals Focus

Gold prices could move towards $4,800–5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, with the $4,000 per ounce level holding firmly and expectations of a less aggressive US Federal Reserve supporting the precious metal, according to Harshal Barot, Senior Consultant-South Asia and Middle East at Metals Focus.

Barot said the market is increasingly questioning the Fed’s ability to raise interest rates aggressively after weaker US employment data and volatility in currency and bond markets. Even if the Fed raises rates once this year, he does not see it as the beginning of a broader monetary tightening cycle.

“Given the macro backdrop that we have now, we think that prices will start to gain from here on,” Barot said.



He sees some resistance for gold around $4,500, but expects the broader trend to remain positive. Seasonal demand from India could provide additional support as the country enters the festive and wedding season.

While higher gold prices have structurally put pressure on jewellery volumes, Barot said sentiment among Indian retailers and manufacturers has improved significantly. He said order volumes seen by manufacturers at a recent industry event were higher than last year, with some describing them as the strongest since Covid.

“There is this element of pent-up demand in the market, given the first two quarters of this calendar year were slow,” he said.

Barot expects demand to improve in the second half of the year as prices stabilise and consumers return to the market. He said August onwards will be particularly important for tracking the recovery in Indian gold imports.



Silver is also expected to remain in an uptrend, broadly following gold. Barot sees silver eventually moving towards $85–90, although he expects it to underperform gold in the short term.

The key concern is supply. Silver import quotas available to Indian traders remain below typical seasonal demand, which could limit the amount of metal available in the domestic market. Premiums have already risen to around $2.50 an ounce, from a peak of about $6.50 in July when imports were severely constrained.

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“If the trade is not able to import as much, I think that should pressure the price in a sense or keep the rally capped,” Barot said.

He expects gold to remain the stronger performer in the near term, while silver’s trajectory will depend partly on whether India can secure enough imports to meet festive-season demand.

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