Nifty could head towards 30,000 in 2026, says ICICI Direct

Brokerage firm ICICI Direct believes the Nifty50 could climb towards the 30,000 mark in calendar year 2026. The brokerage points to a cup and handle breakout pattern, which has historically delivered gains of around 40% over the subsequent 12 to 18 months.

It also said that the index has been moving within a rising channel since November 2021, with the upper band indicating further upside.

Additionally, past bull market corrections of 15%-20% have typically been followed by rallies of nearly 40% over the next 12 to 18 months.

On the weekly chart, ICICI Direct said buying near the 52 week exponential moving average of around 24,700 offers a favourable risk reward.

Since 2008, the Nifty has delivered average returns of about 30% in the 12 months following such levels, with an average drawdown of nearly 7% below the 52 week EMA.

The recent rebound after a 17% correction is seen as a healthy development and supports a move towards the 28,600 zone in the medium term.

Citi expects 2026 to begin with a stronger risk reward setup compared with 2025, citing that India has already seen sharp underperformance and that most emerging market portfolios remain underweight on the country.

The brokerage believes several key variables are either already improving or poised to do so in the coming months.

Citi has set a December 2026 target of 28,500 for the Nifty, implying an upside of around 10% based on a 20x one year forward P/E multiple.

Its preferred overweight sectors include banks, telecoms, autos, healthcare and defence, and it remains constructive on Indian equities heading into next year.

Goldman Sachs also turned positive on India, upgrading the market to 'Overweight' on November 10, about 13 months after cutting its stance to 'Neutral' in October 2024.

The brokerage has pegged the Nifty50 target at 29,000 by the end of December 2026. Goldman Sachs favours themes such as financials, consumer staples, defence and oil marketing companies, while flagging risks including earnings shortfalls, external headwinds and investor concerns around the impact of AI.