Why Vodafone Idea shares may slide back to ₹9, as per JPMorgan

Shares of Vodafone Idea Ltd. will be in focus on Thursday, February 12, after brokerage firm JPMorgan downgraded the stock to 'Underweight'.

The brokerage has a price target of ₹9 per share, which implies a potential downside of 23% from current levels.



JPMorgan believes the recent stock outperformance is overdone, as the company still awaits bank funding to drive the next leg of its capex cycle.

The brokerage said fresh capital expenditure is crucial for Vodafone Idea to arrest subscriber losses and move towards net subscriber additions through improved network investments.

While the first capex cycle began in the first quarter of FY25, following the ₹18,000 crore fund raise via follow-on public offer (FPO), which helped the company partly stem subscriber losses, it was not sufficient to deliver positive net additions.

The brokerage also flagged that Vodafone Idea's target of a threefold increase in cash EBITDA over the next three years appears aggressive, as it factors in market share gains versus Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio, a scenario JPMorgan views with caution.

According to the brokerage, the company faces multiple hurdles before its business stabilises, including securing bank funding and achieving consistent positive subscriber additions.

At 15 times its FY27 EV/EBITDA estimates, JPMorgan said the stock appears to be pricing in most of the positives.

The stock has also benefited from the promoter increasing his stake in the company. Between January 30 and February 3, Kumar Mangalam Birla bought around 59.6 million shares from the open market.

Vodafone Idea shares ended 2.35% higher on Wednesday at ₹11.75. The stock has gained over 4% in the past month.

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