Gold could cross $6,000 next year as debt, global risks fuel rally: Saxo Bank

Gold prices are likely to reclaim the $5,000 per ounce mark and could move past $6,000 per ounce next year, as structural drivers such as rising global debt and shifting macroeconomic dynamics continue to support the precious metal, according to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Hansen said the recent pullback in gold should be viewed in the context of a broader bull cycle rather than a reversal in trend. “If we can move back above $5,000 per ounce and towards earlier highs, that would be a strong outcome for this year,” he said, adding that a further “10–15% next year… would take us above $6,000 per ounce.”

His comments come against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions after coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, which have significantly disrupted global energy and commodity markets. The conflict has damaged critical infrastructure, including energy facilities, and led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude oil prices sharply higher and fuelling inflationary concerns across major economies.

Despite gold’s traditional safe-haven appeal, prices fell sharply during the peak of the crisis, declining 13% in March, as investors rotated into energy markets and liquidated positions to cover losses elsewhere. Silver saw an even steeper fall of 23% during the same period. Hansen noted that such behaviour reflects changing market dynamics.

“We are seeing changing dynamics, which means the rulebook used over the past decade may no longer apply,” he said, pointing to a shift from a liquidity-driven environment to one shaped by inflation and, increasingly, growth concerns.

According to Hansen, the recent rebound in gold prices is tied to fears of a slowdown in global growth, exacerbated by elevated energy costs and supply chain disruptions, including in key sectors such as aluminium. With West Asia accounting for nearly 10% of global aluminium output, prolonged shutdowns in the region are expected to tighten supply and add to cost pressures.

“We have moved from a liquidity crisis to an inflation shock, and now potentially towards a growth shock,” Hansen said, adding that these evolving risks are likely to keep gold “top of mind for investors” in the months ahead.

He also flagged rising fiscal deficits and debt levels as a key long-term driver for gold. “Everything depends on the trajectory of debt, and there are no clear solutions,” he said, noting that concerns around the US dollar’s global standing and ongoing de-dollarisation trends could further boost demand for hard assets.

While Hansen expects gold to trend higher, he remains measured on aggressive price forecasts, focusing instead on underlying fundamentals. He expects gains of around 10–15% annually if current conditions persist, underpinned by macroeconomic uncertainty and sustained investor interest.

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On silver, Hansen said the metal could see moderate outperformance relative to gold, supported by demand from the energy transition, particularly solar power. However, he cautioned that industrial demand remains sensitive to price increases, which could limit upside in the near term.

Overall, Hansen maintained that the current correction and volatility in precious metals are part of a broader adjustment phase, with structural factors continuing to favour higher prices over the medium term.