Goldman Sachs lowers second-quarter 2026 oil price forecasts

Goldman Sachs trimmed its second‑quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and US crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, late on Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire.

Previously, the bank forecast Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to average $99 and $91 a barrel, respectively.

"Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH (Strait of Hormuz), we nudge down our Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI," the bank said in a note.

Brent crude oil prices are down over 11% so far this week amid hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen after US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

However, prices rose on Thursday on concerns that supply from the key West Asian producing region may not fully resume amid doubts about the ceasefire holding and as the crucial strait remains restricted. [O/R]

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Goldman kept its third-quarter forecast unchanged at $82 for Brent and $77 for WTI, and for the fourth quarter at $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI.

The bank said risks to its price forecasts remain skewed to the upside, reflecting the potential for longer‑lasting disruptions and more persistent crude production losses.

In a severe case where the ceasefire doesn't hold and with persistent West Asia production losses of around 2 million barrels per day, Brent could average closer to $115 in the fourth quarter, the bank said.

Goldman also lowered its second-quarter European benchmark TTF gas price forecast to 50 euros per megawatt-hour (EUR/MWh) from 70 EUR/MWh on the assumption of gradual normalisation of LNG flows through Hormuz from mid-April.

However, if LNG flows are significantly delayed or production infrastructure is damaged, prices will likely go above 75 EUR/MWh, Goldman added.