Trade Setup for November 26: Nifty bulls pin hopes on December series to scale new peaks

Nifty50 stayed under pressure, extending its losing streak for the third session. The November series expiry remained muted, with the index once again failing to hold above the psychological 26,000 mark and finally slipping below 25,900.

The market opened firm and held its gains for most of the day, but a sudden late-session selloff erased the recovery, pulling the index near the day's low.

Nifty briefly crossed 26,000 during the session, but a sharp decline in the last hour dragged it down by nearly 175 points from the intraday high.

The index ended the day at 25,884, down 74 points, amid heightened volatility.

Among the Nifty constituents, Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL), Hindalco Industries, and State Bank of India

(SBI) were the major gainers. Conversely, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicle segment, Trent, and Infosys Ltd (INFY) faced selling pressure and closed as the day's major laggards.

Sectoral performance was mixed with Realty, PSU Banks, and Metals ending as major gainers, while Media, IT, and Consumer Durables sectors closed lower.

The broader market outperformed the benchmark indices, with the Nifty Midcap 100 rising 0.36% and the Nifty Smallcap 100 broke its five-day losing streak by gaining 0.19%.

Investors also stayed cautious ahead of the upcoming US inflation data and what it could mean for the Fed's policy path.

Foreign institutional selling continued to drag sentiment, with FIIs pulling out ₹4,171 crore on November 24. Persistent outflows, uncertainty around the next US Fed meeting, and the lack of progress on a potential US-India trade deal are likely to keep traders cautious, said Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal.

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said the ongoing weakness may stabilise near the support cluster of 25,800-25,700, forming a higher bottom over the next few sessions. Immediate resistance is at 26,050.

According to Nilesh Jain of Centrum Broking, Nifty needs a clear move above 26,000 to trigger short covering and open the path to 26,200. The index is currently hovering near its 21-DMA at 25,850. A slip below this could accelerate the decline toward 25,700, he added.

Jain said the broader structure remains bullish, and buying on dips is likely to work as long as the index stays above the 50-DMA, now around 25,490.

Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities mentioned that the 20-day EMA between 25,850 and 25,800 will act as a key support zone. A sustained move below 25,800 could push the index toward 25,600, while 26,000-26,050 remains the immediate resistance zone.

Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities said Nifty has closed very close to its previous swing low of 25,856 and its 20-DEMA at 25,838. A firm close below 25,838 may signal a short-term shift from bullish to bearish, potentially taking the index toward 25,740. On the upside, 26,000-26,050 will continue to act as strong resistance.

For Bank Nifty, the zone of 58,600-58,500 is expected to act as a major support. A sustained break below 58,500 could drive the index toward 58,000. A breakout above 59,200-59,300 is needed for the next leg of upside, Shah added.