Why gold is range-bound ahead of the US Fed meeting and US payrolls report

Gold prices inched higher on Wednesday (November 19) as investors positioned themselves ahead of key US economic data that could clarify the Federal Reserve’s rate path.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,074 per ounce by 0449 GMT, while US futures posted similar gains. In India, 24-karat gold traded at ₹12,486 per gram, with domestic prices showing only marginal recent declines.

The move comes at a moment when global markets are unsettled: the US dollar has strengthened, tech stocks have corrected sharply, and investors are navigating heightened uncertainty around interest-rate expectations.

How the Fed and jobs data are driving gold’s short-term moves?

Gold’s near-term trajectory continues to hinge on the interplay between the US labour market and the Fed’s stance on interest rates.

A stronger dollar—up 0.1% against its peers—made gold more expensive for non-U.S. buyers, pressuring prices and contributing to the recent 2% pullback.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect Thursday’s delayed non-farm payrolls report to show 50,000 job additions. U.S. unemployment claims have already climbed to a two-month high, signalling a softening labour trend.

Analysts say this data is pivotal:

If the labour print weakens: Markets may revive expectations of lower real interest rates, historically a supportive environment for gold.

• If hiring remains resilient: The Fed may maintain a higher-for-longer stance, limiting bullion’s upside.


• Tim Waterer of KCM Trade noted that gold’s momentum has been “thwarted by the stronger USD and doubts about when the next Fed rate cut may arrive,” but risk aversion has prevented steeper declines.


• CME FedWatch data show traders pricing in almost a 49% probability of a rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting.

Why investors are watching market risk—and not just the Fed

Risk sentiment has become another key driver. With global equities tumbling—S&P 500 has logged a four-day losing streak—investors have rotated toward safe assets. Concerns about stretched AI-linked valuations have increased volatility, providing intermittent support to gold despite dollar strength.

Rahul Kalantri of Mehta Equities pointed out that gold saw “sharp volatility” as markets reacted to weaker U.S. unemployment data. Technical levels now indicate support around $4,035–$4,000 and resistance around $4,115–$4,140.

How domestic demand in India is interacting with global cues

India’s seasonal jewellery demand has persisted, but domestic prices have softened slightly.

According to Aksha Kamboj of IBJA, buyers are waiting to see if global headwinds push prices lower. Retail investors view the dip as an opportunity, but uncertainty around global variables continues to temper aggressive buying.

Why the long-term outlook still favors gold

Beyond the immediate reaction to US data, the long-term case for gold remains structurally robust.

Ravi Singh of Master Capital Services emphasised that central banks have become the largest and most consistent buyers of gold, reshaping long-term demand dynamics.

Reserve diversification and geopolitical recalibration continue to fuel sustained accumulation, creating a floor under gold prices regardless of short-term swings.

He notes that investors should “look past near-term volatility” and focus on enduring drivers such as:

• Steady central-bank purchases


• Geopolitical realignments


• Policy uncertainty


• Diversification needs across global reserves

These factors have strengthened bullion’s strategic importance, widening gold’s appeal even during corrective phases.

How technical consolidation is shaping market behaviour

From a trading perspective, gold is consolidating near the $4,000 an ounce handle after its sharp retreat. Justin Khoo of VT Markets said the recent decline appears to be “a technical pullback, not a reversal,” with the market in pause mode ahead of major US data releases.

Khoo and other analysts recommend a cautious but opportunistic strategy: buy moderate dips rather than chase rallies, with the next decisive move tied to Fed guidance and macro data.

-With Reuters inputs