Davos 2026: McKinsey flags radical uncertainty, urges CEOs to make bold moves amid geopolitical shifts

According to McKinsey leaders Gautam Kumra and Alex Panas, the scale and complexity of today’s global disruptions mean traditional scenario planning is no longer sufficient.

As conversations wound down at the World Economic Forum in Davos 2026, one theme dominated boardroom discussions and panel conversations alike, i.e. radical uncertainty.

According to McKinsey leaders Gautam Kumra and Alex Panas, the scale and complexity of today’s global disruptions mean traditional scenario planning is no longer sufficient.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Kumra said CEOs are grappling with far more than tariff risks, which dominated Davos conversations just a year ago.

“We are now dealing with military, security and geopolitical uncertainty, export controls, investment screening and sanctions. The toolkit has expanded dramatically,” he said, adding that governments globally have spent nearly $2 trillion over the past five years on subsidies, incentives and trade restrictions.

In such an environment, Kumra argued that companies must focus on no-regret moves, bold actions and optionality, rather than trying to map every possible outcome.

Freezing in uncertainty, he warned, risks long-term decline, while reckless aggression could prove equally damaging. The key lies in balancing defence with selective offence to emerge stronger.

Panas echoed this view, highlighting that despite the uncertainty, CEOs remain focused on fundamentals, by driving growth, reshaping businesses through technology, and reviving mergers and acquisitions.

“AI has moved beyond pilot projects. The focus now is on ROI, rewiring processes and making technology a CEO and board-level agenda, not just a CIO issue,” he said.

M&A activity, Panas added, has returned strongly after years of backlog, supported by higher equity valuations and the opportunity to use technology as a catalyst to transform industries across sectors, encompassing consumer and industrials to energy and telecom.

For India and Asia, Kumra sees significant opportunity amid the global rewiring of trade. McKinsey estimates that $12–14 trillion of global trade could be reshaped over the next decade, with India sitting at the heart of some of the world’s safest and fastest-growing trade corridors, including India-Europe, India-Japan and India-Middle East routes. In this context, a potential India-EU Free Trade Agreement could further strengthen India’s global positioning.

Turning to 2026, Kumra identified converting AI from hype to reality as a defining theme. “The fastest learners will survive,” he said, adding that AI will play very different roles across markets, from productivity in ageing economies to growth and problem-solving in India.