Nifty Outlook for June 29: 24,200 remains key hurdle as quarter ends and updates begin

The Nifty extended its winning streak for a second straight session on Thursday, adding 34 points to settle at 24,056, although gains were trimmed sharply due to profit booking in the second half of the session.

The benchmark index opened more than 100 points higher and climbed to an intraday high of 24,261 during the first half. However, selling pressure emerged later in the day, erasing over 200 points from the day's peak as investors booked profits ahead of the extended weekend.

Despite the late pullback, the index managed to end marginally in the green.

With Thursday's close, the Nifty also recorded its third consecutive weekly gain, rising 0.14% for the week.

Among index heavyweights, IndiGo, Mahindra & Mahindra and Maruti Suzuki led the advances, while ONGC, Hindalco and Power Grid were among the top losers.

Sectoral trends remained mixed. Auto, FMCG and Realty stocks outperformed, whereas Metal, Oil & Gas and IT counters ended lower. The broader market lagged the benchmarks, with both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 declining 0.5%.

Meanwhile, the rupee strengthened for a second consecutive session, appreciating 28 paise to close at 94.39 against the US dollar. The currency was supported by softer crude oil prices and likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India.

Market participants expect Indian equities to maintain a positive bias as long as the Nifty holds above the 24,000 mark.

Improving geopolitical sentiment, cooling crude oil prices and a stronger rupee are expected to remain supportive, while investors will also track Eurozone inflation data, China's manufacturing PMI and developments in global commodity markets.

Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities said the Nifty continues to face stiff resistance near the previous swing high of 24,190 on a closing basis.

The day's high of 24,261 has now emerged as the immediate hurdle, and a sustained move above this level could pave the way towards the 200-day DEMA near 24,440. On the downside, 23,789 remains a crucial support level.

According to Osho Krishan of Angel One, the benchmark remains in a consolidation phase, with the 100-DEMA in the 24,140-24,170 zone acting as an immediate barrier.

The analysts said that a decisive breakout above this range could push the index towards the 24,500-24,600 zone, while support is expected around 23,800, followed by the bullish gap area extending to 23,645.

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities believes the Nifty may continue to consolidate or witness a minor correction after failing to sustain above the key 24,200 resistance level.

He expects immediate support at 23,800, while a decisive move above 24,200 could trigger further upside.

LKP Securities' Rupak De said the index remained volatile amid the BSE F&O expiry but maintained its positive structure by holding above the 50-day exponential moving average.

He expects the uptrend to remain intact as long as the Nifty stays above 23,800, with the potential to advance towards 24,500 in the near term.

Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities expects immediate resistance in the 24,200-24,250 zone. A sustained breakout above this range could lift the index towards 24,400 initially and then 24,600. On the downside, he sees support in the 23,900-23,850 range.