Gold steady, silver near all-time high as rate-cut bets, demand trends shape outlook

Gold prices traded largely steady on Thursday (December 18) as dovish signals from the US Federal Reserve supported sentiment, while a firm dollar capped gains ahead of key US inflation data. Silver, meanwhile, hovered near all-time highs, driven by strong industrial demand, tightening supplies and sustained investor interest.

In global markets, spot gold eased 0.1% to $4,334.70 an ounce in early trade after rising more than 1% in the previous session. US gold futures slipped 0.2% to $4,365.40 an ounce.

The dollar index held on to recent gains after touching a near one-week high, limiting upside in dollar-denominated bullion.

Silver outperformed. Spot prices rose 0.3% to $66.48 an ounce after hitting a record $66.88 an ounce in the prior session. The metal has surged about 130% an ounce so far this year, sharply outpacing gold’s roughly 65% an ounce gain.

Domestic prices firm

In India, gold prices stood at ₹13,484 per gram for 24-carat, ₹12,360 for 22-carat and ₹10,113 for 18-carat gold. Silver traded at ₹211 per gram, or ₹2,11,000 per kilogram, reflecting the global strength in prices.

Rates, data and geopolitics in focus

Markets continue to factor in a supportive interest-rate environment for precious metals. The Fed last week delivered its third 25-basis-point cut of the year, and traders are now pricing in two additional rate cuts in 2026, even as the Fed’s dot plot signals fewer reductions.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank could continue cutting rates amid a cooling labour market, reinforcing expectations that non-yielding assets such as gold and silver could benefit.

Recent US data added to that view. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, its highest level since September 2021, while payrolls, retail sales and housing indicators came in weaker than expected.

Investors now await November’s US Consumer Price Index data later on Thursday, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation gauge on Friday for further cues.

Geopolitical factors have also supported safe-haven demand. Tensions linked to US sanctions on Venezuela and broader global uncertainties have kept investor interest in bullion intact.

Silver supply tightness stands out

Analysts point to tightening physical supply as a key driver for silver’s sharp rally. The metal has entered backwardation, with the gap between spot and futures prices widening to about 50–60 cents, signalling near-term supply constraints alongside speculative interest.

Strong industrial demand, particularly from energy transition and manufacturing segments, continues to underpin prices.

Some market participants expect silver to test the $70-per-ounce mark next year if rate cuts continue and demand remains firm, though they caution that bouts of profit-taking could emerge after the recent rapid rise.

Outlook: Firm but volatile

Market experts expect gold to remain supported by global risk perceptions, central bank policy cues and currency movements, with buyers continuing to step in on dips.

Silver is likely to stay more volatile given the pace of recent gains, but fundamentals remain constructive.

Technical levels suggest gold faces resistance around $4,355–$4,385 an ounce, with support near $4,245–$4,275. For silver, resistance lies near $66.90–$67.75, while support is seen around $64.75–$65.40.

Overall, bullion markets are entering a data-heavy phase, with inflation readings and central bank decisions set to determine whether the current momentum in gold and silver can sustain into the coming weeks.

-With Reuters inputs