Reliance Industries' refining margin can improve further on Venezuela oil revival, Goldman says

Brokerage firm Goldman Sachs has a 'Buy' rating on Nifty 50 heavyweight Reliance Industries Ltd., with a price target of ₹1,835 per share. This target implies an upside potential of up to 25% from the stock's previous closing price.

Goldman Sachs expects moderation in Reliance's retail earnings growth in the third quarter, citing weak discretionary spending, base effects and the timing of the festive season.

However, this is likely to be partly offset by a strong, refining led performance in the energy business.

The brokerage said it has trimmed its near term retail growth assumptions while raising refining estimates. As a result, its overall earnings forecasts for Reliance remain largely unchanged.

Goldman Sachs added that refining fundamentals continue to be supported by tight product markets through CY27.

It also said that crude differentials across alternative grades, including Middle Eastern barrels, are improving, which could help sustain strong refining margins.

The brokerage flagged further upside risks to Reliance's refining margins if crude sourcing from Venezuela were to resume.

Commenting on this, a Reliance Industries spokesperson said on January 9 that the company is awaiting clarity on access to Venezuelan oil for non US buyers and will consider purchases in a compliant manner.

In the telecom business, Goldman Sachs expects an EBITDA CAGR of 18% over FY26 to FY30.

Reliance Industries is scheduled to announce its third quarter financial results on January 16, 2026.

Of the 37 analysts tracking the stock, 35 have a 'Buy' recommendation, while two maintain a 'Sell' rating.

Shares of Reliance Industries ended Thursday's session 2.23% lower at ₹1,470.70. The stock is about 9% below its record high of ₹1,611.80.

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